What do you think, why certain things happen to us? There are links of causation and effect, some very indirect and hidden but still very logical. Let's leave them out from this discussion. There is a theory of chaos, about the random events, and some people would not accept any other explanations (crazy things are only coincidental and can be explained as statistical extremes). Some other people would argue that certain actions, thoughts and their qualities lead to positive or negative, desired or undesired outcomes. Does doing good or bad get rewarded/punished? Do thoughts affect the reality? Is success/chronic bad luck random and accidental? Can our mental efforts change anything? What type of mental efforts can do the job?

I have some observations in my mind, and I will tell them later in a comment. Let's leave karma concept aside as 1) I'd like to focus within one lifetime frame (your own observations) and 2) in itself it's a disputable subject, discussed plenty.

Let me know if similar ideas have been discussed here, I would happily read through previous threads.

Interesting topic. Causality is a complicated beast (no wonder it is one of the 4 imponderables).

Thoughts, especially thoughts charged with intent definetely shape the reality - it is the basis of all magic traditions, there is significant ammount of evidence that this is also reproducable in a scientific way. It is also my experience on a day to day basis. 

One thing to note is that it is difficult to say what causes what (i.e. what is the direction of causality) in the conventional sense, as clearly from buddhist philosophy/dependent origination perspective it is bidirectional. When I press on the door handle, the door opens - it seems to be one-way causation. However, when I intend to meet a person, and then that person calls me out of nowhere, did I "cause" them to call me, or did they calling me in the future, cause me to intend to meet then? Who knows how that works .

The conceptual framework of Random (Probabilistic?) vs. Alternative? (Non-random?/Predestined, etc.) is something I don't find particularly useful/skillful outside of some very limitted cases. Whatever happens, happens - was it Random or not doesn't actually change much and is thus not particularly useful for most life situations. I find e.g. the framework of significant vs. not significant (as a bodily-fealth thing and not so much as purely conceptual) more useful as that has major impact on me and how I behave.

About thoughts charged with intent, I might be missing some dimension from the equation! Happened to work on some projects with greatest determination, vision and belief, but with hardly any progress, as if banging my head against the wall. In the meanwhile had a career change when it felt like all doors were opening in front of me. However my first intent and direction was very different from where I ended up. There must be another quality of or alongside intent that make wheels move imho.

Can you explain your framework of significant vs not significant? (As bodily-health? What do you mean?). That might be a quality I've registered as well but cannot be sure before I know what you are speaking about!

On the thoughts charged with intent - Have you read the relevant part of MCTB2 by any chance? 
https://www.mctb.org/mctb2/table-of-contents/part-vi-my-spiritual-quest/65-how-to-cultivate-the-powers/


Significant vs. non-significant - I will try my best to give some examples.

Think about how your body feels when something you are throwing a coin just for the fun on your own. Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails, and whatever. There isn't any strong bodily sensation (e.g. stomach, torso, heart area, mussle tension in the limbs) that indicates that this is somehow significant. Contrast that with getting news that a closed one is unexpectedly ill or has passed away. Both can be labelled as random or somehow "not random". But that designation is not super useful I find. However, the first doesn't feel significant in the body and doesn't set any majour events in motion. The second feels significant "in the body" and emotionally, and this is valuable information which sets events into motion. The second is also in a conceptually significant.

But then there are events that on the surface of it are not conceptually significant, but feel significant in the emotionally (in the body). I remember the last time I saw a good friend from high-school years ago and haven't seen her sinse. Conceptually, the situation was just a normal situation and didn't think that I won't be seeing her for years. But the bodily feeling in that situation was that this is somehow a massive situation that has significance. And it turned out to be the last time I saw her.

On the flip-side, I have had such gut-feel situations with people that I wasn't close with, but events transpired in such ways that I am now close to them And conceptually these situations also didn't feel like they would lead to lasting relationships (or any relationships for that matter) but bodily (e.g. warm feelings in the heart area, arousal in the stomach area, muscle tension, energetic tingling in the limbs) it felt that there is significance.

More examples if I may ask... About the significant/non-significant. What do you do with the message from your guts? Does it merely work as a prediction or something you would use to influence the future events?

I have probably skimmed through the power chapter when I read MCTB2 couple years ago. I had some crazy stuff happening after big emotional trauma many years ago, before I tried any meditation. It included a lasting shift of perception and powers (strong intuition, charisma that I had never had before or after, and influence over events). But it lasted continuosly for a few months and required no special state of mind. Cannot repeat it with the same success anymore.

Yeah, on the significanse - I just go with what feels significant and "amply" so to say in that direction. E.g. if I get a sense that talking or meeting someone might be significant, I make a wish (thought charged with intent) for that conversation to happen. One metaphor that comes to mind is you get a sense of where the river is flowing, and you also start rowing in that direction. Two more examples of the top off my head:
1) I get into an argument with one of my subordinates at work. On the surface, nothing big, but it felt significant and I realize it might be best to part ways. I make a resolution for the situation to resolve in a positive way (with some work specifics which are not supe relevant). I don't do anything to force it, and if anything am more friednly and cooperative to them, but htey leave within 1 month. Happened 2 times.
2) I have been resolving some specific psychological/bodily/energetic trauma over the past few months. There have been a few especially significant milestones as part of that process - e.g. dad anger issues, etc. I made numerous wishes to resolve that trauma for the benefit of all beings. Miraculously, I get in touch with people, pratices, stupidly crazy synchronicities and life events that help me resolve the trauma.

But please note - it doesn't work 100% of the time. Reason why I referred to MCTB powers part is that it gives a good overview of all the factors that influence how succesful our magick might be

Thanks for sharing.<br />Before meditation and during the mental shake up period, I was given a copy of Zeland's Transfering Reality. That's when all the crazy stuff started to happen. The rule from the book was: 1) knowing that your wish will come true (similar to charging with intent) and 2) not giving a shit whether it will The second condition is to be absolutely peaceful about the result. Now that I practice meditation, the second condition would translate into equanimity - no craving, no fear, just peaceful knowing.<br /><br />