John, Sarah, and Tom are playing poker.  They are equally good.  Over an infinite period of time the amount of money each one makes goes to 0 as they are all equally good.

John had performed some immoral actions.  He now has some bad karma.  This causes him to have some bad luck in poker and he loses more than normal.  If this happens, for the math to stay the same, one or both of the other players have to have "good" luck and win more than average.

Way to reconcile this?

Potentially Quantum Entanglement. 

In quantum physics a particle is not A+ or A- Instead the particle is described as a probability of each.  Maybe 40% A+ and 60% A- However, once the particle is observed it becomes one or the other.

In quantum physics Einstein said there should be now "spooky action at a distance".  Meaning something happening here cannot arbitraily affect something else somewhere else unless all the things inbetween the two are also effected.  For example, if I clap my hands the air current at a position 10 feet away can only change if all the area connected between those 2 spots are affected.  My clap cannot randomly change the air current of something in Texas, unless it effects all the air in between it (which it does).

This was proved wrong with quantum entanglement.  There can be 2 particals that are far away from each other than are "entangled" or connected.  Remember particles exist in probabilities but when it is observed it becomes a specific choice. However, if 2 particles are entangled, observing one forces the other one to also choose which it is, and it chooses the opposite.  Meaning if particle 1 chose to be A+, the other particle then chooses to be A-.

You will have to define the mechanics of karma for any reconciliation to be possible, and in doing so, you will find that there is actually no contradiction. Precisely what is an immoral action, and precisely how does it result in negative outcomes for John?

Whatever the mechanism, it cannot have anything to do with "luck"; it must lie within the realm of causality, as does the law of large numbers. Although the game of poker is subject to chance, it is mostly a game of skill.

Let's say that the most rational explanation of karma is that John's immoral actions result in negative effects on his own state of being, such as diminished concentration, confidence, and self respect. In that case, he is no longer as good at poker as his opponents. (In fact, the players were never equally skilled at poker, but this is only a thought experiment).

Believers in the conventional notion of karma have a big problem explaining how it works out for individuals. It is obvious that the balancing of causes and effects seldom (if ever) happens within the current lifetime; so believers must postulate innumerable rebirths for this to occur.

I'm gonna leave morality as an exercise for the reader. We know what I mean when we say good or bad and I'm not going to get into a dead white-philosopher debate about it.

That being said...

There are 3 “good” volitional roots which create all good thoughts/speaches/actions
unselfishness (alobha), hatelessness (adosa =mettā, good-will), undeludedness (amoha = paññā, knowledge) 

There are 3 corresponding “bad” volitional roots which create all bad thoughts/speaches/actions.  The 3 conditions or roots of unwholesome karma (actions) are greed, hatred, delusion (lobha, dosa, moha)

Think of them as fundamental particles that come together to form everything you say and do

.https://www.wisdomlib.org/definition/karma


“Whatever the mechanism, it cannot have anything to do with "luck" it must lie within the realm of causality, as does the law of large numbers. Although the game of poker is subject to chance"

Apparently luck and chance are different for you, the actual word is "Variance" and it has a very specific mathematical use and definition.

"Let's say that the most rational explanation of karma is that John's immoral actions result in negative effects on his own state of being, such as diminished concentration, confidence, and self respect. In that case, he is no longer as good at poker as his opponents"

Yes his bad karma may reduce his skill. It also may manifest as a slight breeze which causes the dealer to make 1 less shuffle, altering how the hand plays out.

Karma is not up for debate.  I experience it all the time.  I get a vague visual when some bad happens due to bad karma.  I see a little curved line, from which I have learned to notice that it communcitates relatively the type of bad karma and the size.

In my opinion this is a fundamental misunderstanding of karma.  You dont get more money for being a good person.  Ask old Vlad Putin. 

You can look at karma in two ways - as it effects the mind and as it drives all existence.  In the mind, bad and good karma are the results of actions that we take that are driven by "bad" volitional roots and the result of them is to reiify these bad roots as acceptable drivers of action and to tangle us further into the delusional narratives that made those roots arise in the first place.  So you could be President for life of Russia and the richest man in the world, but your mind is probably a tangled and ugly mess of delusion.  That is karma of the mind. 

Karma can also be understood simply as cause and effect.  Look at the universe as meaninglessly unfolding due to cause and effect and you are a buddha. 

“You dont get more money for being a good person“

But I know that you do

In the same way Buddhism talks about Jhana's, people here have achieved Jhanas

Just as Buddhism describes attainments,people here have experienced attainments

Just as Buddhism describes karma, I have experienced karma. You can feel it in your body as a particular energy and then it leaves you and manifests somehow in reality.  Certain things about the manifestation can be derived from how they look and feel in the body.  When you have no thoughts, and your body and mind are clear patterns are more easily discernible.


"Karma can also be understood simply as cause and effect"

Yes  karma is the universal all-encompassing law.  Classical physics is a subset of it,  specifically in the part where matter interacts with matter. Modern day science has yet to figure out much about how mind interacts with matter.

The road to happiness is paved by not giving a shit about what happens.  Any story you are wrapped up in that features better out comes and worse out comes  - for any reason - is just another delusional story and a trap.   Why hang onto any of them ? 

Happiness is just a nice by product of meditation.  If meditation was extreme pain you would still want to do it to your utmost effort.

We do good things, we do bad things, we move up from hell, to animal, to human, to heaven, moving up and down, never ending.

Everything is impermanent and no matter how much good we do or how high up we go eventually our good karma runs out and we fall 

It is a game you cannot win.

So what do you do? Leave the game.

Where to leave the game?  Where is outside of the game? Nirvana.

How to leave the game?

Meditate

This is Buddhism in it's entirety.

So sjt,

Are you inferring that there is some kind of karmic mean? That all our experiences, when strung together with all our intentions over long periods of time, produce the same sort of effect as the law of large numbers such that it is impossible over a lifetime to retain good karma and bad karma? Are we all bound by the statistics of karma to....  what?

Whatever you're getting at you seem very invested in it.

Makes me curious.