RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Olivier, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Chris Marti:
Dear Tim,

Thank you for your concern! I am not, nor will I be, considering suicide. It's just not my thing. I was thinking in terms of probabilities and Boolean logic, and then I typed the offending sentence. I'm sorry. I'll work harder to communicate with more concern for everyone's possible reaction to my words.

Yours in solidarity,

CM
Well, see, there you go, it was just a language thing. In Boolean logic, death is a 0, so if I'd recognized your angle I wouldn't have given it a moment's thought, no value change, no problem. I was misreading you anyway, thinking you were treating death as a 1, so forgive me for that. And thank you for the reassurance, in any case.

yours in these uncharted waters,
tf
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Olivier, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Weird... 

Let me try again.

I wrote a post saying this :

There seems to be a linear function correlating energy consumption with GDP. It's also linear between emissions and GDP. This is true if you measure world emissions, not so much if you measure by country, because outsourcing introduces biases. 

If we wanted to stay at +2C by 2100, we would have to reduce world emissions/consumption by 5% each year. That means, also contracting the world GDP by 4% each year. 

Just saying.

See this presentation for sources, at 1:36:xx-1:37:xx : Jancovici at EIVP
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Chris Marti, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I would ask this question - is energy consumption vs GDP the underlying issue here in regard to climate change? (I need to research his relationship.) Or is the ultimate issue the nature of the sources of our energy? I'm thinking that energy sources like wind and solar will slowly replace oil and gas and that the nature of the energy sources we use may then alter the emissions problems we have.

Thinking out loud.
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Olivier, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Yes, it is. It's just physical constraints, thermodynamics...

Solar and wind are not less poluting, they definitely don't represent sustainable sources of energy. That is green washing :p

The problem is how much we consume every day, and it kind of comes down to that. The equivalent of 500 energetic slaves per person, in europe at least.

Humanity lived sustainably throughout its whole history, with far less energy available - most people worked in agriculture, and the small surpluses were enough to feed only several, perhaps tens of thousands of individuals in the cities which could not exceed a certain size because of physical constraints. Until the industrial revolutions and discovery of fossil fuels.

Hence the massive growth of societies in the past two centuries.

Money and wealth are basically energy. Take out energy, take out wealth.

It's not like this is something that's a question anymore... If you have doubts, do the research, please...

There is no going around that, and anyone telling you that is either in denial and living in a fairy tale from which he will crash HARD in the decades to come, or lying to you emoticon

We have two choices : voluntarily cultivate sobriety through imposing ourselves massive constraints - that is the least pleasant in the short term but most beneficial in the long run. Or keep going the same way and have massive constraints be imposed on us from the outside - that is nicer in the short term but more serious in the long run. In any case, massive degrowth is underway.
agnostic, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Olivier:

Solar and wind are not less poluting, they definitely don't represent sustainable sources of energy. That is green washing :p

Just curious, how is solar/wind not sustainable? (other than the obvious fact that the sun will eventually run out of fuel!) And polluting? (other than land use)

I agree with most of what you say about growth, I just don't see it happening en masse voluntarily or by government mandate (at least not until the environment degrades significantly more).

Humans can be quite ingenious though. What about nuclear fusion? Or maybe just more fuel-efficient technology? I don't know, I haven't done any research into this.
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Chris Marti, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Olivier, pardon me if I do the research myself  emoticon
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Olivier, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Do it ......................... emoticon 
shargrol, modified 3 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Chris Marti:
Olivier, pardon me if I do the research myself  emoticon


I found that the movie "planet of the humans" was a good quick-view of some of the downsides of solar/wind. I wouldn't take it as gospel, but it did shake my confidence that the solution is easy. (There's also a fact check section on the website that shows the sources/references https://planetofthehumans.com/fact-check-bible/)
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Seems like taking a 4% pay cut each year and having less kids might in fact be the best solution (and I'm not being sarcastic here either)
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Here's a Google presentation that supports what Olivier is saying. Caveat: this video is from 2012. I plan to try to find out if the technologies and costs referenced in this video have materially changed the picture presented in this video over the succeeding nine years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6uVnyjTb58

FYI: Thanks to shargrol for the link to https://planetofthehumans.com/fact-check-bible/, which is where I found the video.
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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What Olivier is saying is very well supported by a bunch of very serious engineers and scientists .... emoticon

One great source is the one I just gave for instance, Jean-Marc Jancovici is THE reference on this in france these days - he probably has a lot of stuff in english or subbed in english.

FWIW, guess who originally linked the planet of the humans documentary upthread :p The guy in this video is a main feature of the movie.

It's also a bit ironic that Google, who are pretending now that they're gonna go "transparent", are hosting this while furthering their importance in people's life by implying that it doesn't plute to use google, thus reinforcing the dependence upon the complex industrial chains from extraction to transformation to... etc., which come into the making of the high tech stuff and 5G stuff....
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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For instance, a talk in the most prestigious french higher education institution, École Normale Supérieure (1h30 long vid) Can we save energy, jobs and growth at the same time ? 08/01/2018

He's actualy pretty funny and his accent is pretty good emoticon
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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A 1 min long element of response to your question Chris : Jancovici : Carbon Impact of IT system - 16/05/2019
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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One 2 h course among a series given at one of the most important engineer schools in France, with english subs : Renewable energies - École des Mines - Jancovici
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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And finally, a more introductory thing, which lasts 11 min, so that we have something for all time budgets and tastes emoticonEnergy : basics for an informed debate
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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So.... I'm happy I've never invested in Bitcoin.
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Why bitcoin in particular ? (I didn't watch every single conference i linked :p)
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Mining Bitcoin (making the currency) involves solving massively complex algorithms using huge server farms that suck massive amounts of energy:

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
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J W, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Chris Marti:
Mining Bitcoin (making the currency) involves solving massively complex algorithms using huge server farms that suck massive amounts of energy:

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
Counter-point: those server farms (which only takes a tiny percentage of global energy consumption) could be powered by renewables if that infrastructure was in place, which it is not. So it's as much a systemic problem as anything else.

Counter-counter-point: I am biased and just want to feel better about my participation in the crypto space emoticon

And also, it is crazy that mining Bitcoin now has a larger footprint than mining gold. (only recently, though) There was a time only 5-10 years ago where it could be done from one's closet.

(Edit, now that I read the link in more depth.)
It is a scary metric that Bitcoin mining now constitutes half of all global data center usage (if indeed true, which I'm not sure what their methodology was here)
But keep in mind there are already solutions being worked on to make Bitcoin/ other cryptos greener.

For example:
https://techfastly.com/proof-of-stake-vs-proof-of-work/

Also, I don't have the numbers, but i would guess that 'global data center usage' is not one of the larger sources of energy consumption, compared to things like transportation, home energy consumption, etc.

Perhaps a better metric to look at would be the total power consumption of the Bitcoin network, which was around that of Switzerland as of a year ago. Probably more now, but not sooo much more.

It seems like a lot but looking at it another way, 
"Bitcoin is using around seven gigawatts of electricity, equal to 0.21% of the world's supply"

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48853230#:~:text=Currently%2C%20the%20tool%20estimates%20that,same%20power%20consumption%20as%20Switzerland.

And also keep in mind, Bitcoin is now the world's 5th largest currency (!) 
It's complicated...
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Yeah but the bitcoin footprint goes down as the price goes up ... buy, buy buy! emoticon
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I know very few people who seem to be able to grasp the magnitude of all this, the systemic nature of the problem, interconnectivity of all aspects of it, or maybe rather, who are willing to take the very minimum time of 20 hours to study this situation in decent detail...

edit : Not said from a place of high-spouting, but from genuine perplexity at a disconcerting state of affairs... Sorry if this sounds unpleasant, but the feeling I get these days when I think about this, is the same I would get if I had a cousin who was addicted to crack, and to tackle the problem, decided to start eating organic yoghurts (but not give up the crack)... :p
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J W, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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agnostic:
Yeah but the bitcoin footprint goes down as the price goes up ... buy, buy buy! emoticon

Well, another nuanced look at it:

https://medium.com/@hillpot/bitcoin-vs-gold-which-hurts-the-environment-more-75193863dfb6#:~:text=At%20the%20end%20of%20the,required%20to%20maintain%20its%20network.

"As of November 2020Bitcoin energy consumption was estimated to be around 76.87 terawatt hours per year"

"gold-mining operations expend 132 terawatt-hours per year. That’s a little closer to Poland."
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Debating the individual merits and defects of small aspects of the whole thing like bitcoins, prevent us from getting the broad picture.

Even if bittcoins themselves consumed 0, there would still need to be coal plants, many kinds of mining and factories, complex industrial chains and globalized physical fluxes just to construct the hardware necessary for this "dematerialized stuff" to exist.

It cannot exist without that.

Even if we outsource all production to china, that's still not even close to "net 0". If we are honest and take into account that stuff built in china, pollutes in china, and china uses mostly coal, as do most of the world, well actually we come to understand why we keep emitting more and more and consuming more and more each year that passes. However, countries like the northen european countries, outsource a lot of their polution and then claim to be clean because they only count what's emitted within the national borders... Cunning, innit.

The system is extremely interdependent. Classical economy has HUGE blindspots which prevent it from understanding that. It takes resources for granted. 

This is gonna keep going as long as we don't look at things in the most general terms possible.

It's the Unit efficiency VS volume debate that Jancovici talks about : we are making more energy efficient cars these days ; but we produce much bigger cars, we produce much more cars, and we drive much more. Conclusion, on the whole, we are polluting much more. But everybody everywhere, is using the Unit efficiency thing as a sales argument. What matters is how much we contribute to the warming of the atmosphere.

They make a new smartphone that pollutes three times less than the old one. You buy it, and sell the other one. Well, you still have the polution from the previous one, and on top of that, you had the same amounet divided by three. And the old one is actually still in service somewhere, or slowly decomposing on a beach in India... emoticon etc.

Same goes with "green energies". They never replace consumption of fossil fuels anywhere. They just add a bit of consumption to the mix. Just look it up ... !

Two things :

Given the Co2 that's already in the air, we will get to +1.5C by 2100, even if we stopped poluting entirely tomorrow. 

Staying at +2C would require us to diminish global emissions by 5% each year. That's what happened in 2020 thanks to corona. 

+2C average global temperature means that in many regions in the world, there will actually be hundreds of days per year where people cannot go outside, because they would die from heat+humidity forming actually lethal atmospheric conditions. It also means no more corals in the ocean. Which is something that would probably have dramatic consequences on all marine ecosystems...

So, the general idea is that we need a 4% reduction of GDP per year for the next decades in order to avoid really, really catastrophic things.

The solutions exist and are pretty simple, we just don't want to face them... We know how to be renewable, because we've been renewable since the beginning, until the 1800's.

So what do we do ?

Let go of the technological hubris, and humbly look to the past. That's my perhaps not so H opinion.

(Said with no hard feelings for anyone in particular <3)
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J W, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Olivier:
Debating the individual merits and defects of small aspects of the whole thing like bitcoins, prevent us from getting the broad picture.



I couldn't agree more, mostly just responding to the argument against Bitcoin made earlier (which has become a popular argument in recent days), by providing alternative ways of looking at what I do think is a fascinating topic, considering that virtually nobody thought Bitcoin would become so huge as it is today.

(again... 5th largest currency in the world, right now emoticon)
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I'm sorry I ever mentioned bitcoin. I take it back.

emoticon
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J W, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Chris Marti:
I'm sorry I ever mentioned bitcoin. I take it back.

emoticon
Why? it's just another opportunity to discuss impermanance and dependent origination... and potentially lose a whole lot of money emoticon
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I'm proposing a Corollary to Gresham's Law: as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of bitcoin being mentioned tends to 1.

EDIT: maybe that should be Gresham's Corollary to Godwin's Law, I don't know
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Well, you paraphrased Godwin's Law, so that's where it should be classified.

Ontology matters!
shargrol, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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On the efficiency vs. volume (or mass effect as I call it)...

Ironically first popularized by an observation of efficiency of coal use: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Wow, that's from a while back... 
In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries.

He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological progress could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption. (lol)

shargrol, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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It's amazing how long ago that was... and yet how very very recent all of this is.

Amazing to think that all food was organic before 1940s and most labor was human and animal powered before ~1760, etc etc. 
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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It's been called exponential growth emoticon

There's a whole group of people whose careers now center on studying this kind of technology acceleration, not the least among them Ray Kurzweil. Moore's Law tends to be their most basic tenet.
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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shargrol:
It's amazing how long ago that was... and yet how very very recent all of this is.

Amazing to think that all food was organic before 1940s and most labor was human and animal powered before ~1760, etc etc. 

Sorry to be a party pooper, but it's also amazing to think how life expectancy has increased from around 40 in 1750 to 60 in 1940 and 80 today! (UK data)
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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agnostic:
shargrol:
It's amazing how long ago that was... and yet how very very recent all of this is.

Amazing to think that all food was organic before 1940s and most labor was human and animal powered before ~1760, etc etc. 

Sorry to be a party pooper, but it's also amazing to think how life expectancy has increased from around 40 in 1750 to 60 in 1940 and 80 today! (UK data)
Ourworldindata - hours of fun!
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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It's not a serious problem, 90% of all bitcoin has already been mined. Even if the price goes up a lot, within a few decades it will beome uneconomic to mine the rest. Ok great, so now we're all using bitcoin, no more is being mined and the footprint has gone way down ... now all we have to do is worry about deflation!

We've been here before, during the black death there was massive deflation, which was eventually "solved" by population growth and discovering new sources of gold in the new world.

This kind of deflationary-inflationary cycle has happened many times over human history I suspect. It's almost like the temperature or energy of the human race itself seems to wax and wane in long-term cycles.
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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"Yeah but the bitcoin footprint goes down as the price goes up ... buy, buy, buy!"

But the Earth gets warmer each time you cash your crypto out.

A cunning problem nobody thinks about  -->

"...the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth rate (conveniently chosen to represent a 10× increase every century), we would reach boiling temperature in about 400 years. [Pained expression from economist.] And this statement is independent of technology. Even if we don’t have a name for the energy source yet, as long as it obeys thermodynamics, we cook ourselves with perpetual energy increase."

Oo. Problem. Maybe solvable with the super physics of the 25th century, maybe not.

Of course, the cyborg descendents of the crypto quadrillionaires will be living in space by then. Well. that is if their launch pads haven't been scavenged for roofing material by mutated post-apocalyptic survivors.

[I'll add a little explainer. A coal power station releases heat. It powers your TV, fridge and toaster which also release heat.
So you go renewable. Friction in your wind turbine releases heat. Your turbine powers your electric car, which releases heat. And so on. All technology doing work releases heat, which floats off into the air.
Global energy use is rising exponentially.  https://ourworldindata.org/energy#global-energy-consumption-is-still-rising  Therefore heat is rising. At the moment it's kind of trivial, but it won't be forever.]



Mayyyybeeee you could look here for the awakening/crypto/world-saving nexus  -->
https://www.coindesk.com/vinay-guptas-big-idea-an-identity-layer-for-your-things
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Stickman3:

But the Earth gets warmer each time you cash your crypto out.


LOL just wait and see what happens when you try to cash your crypto out emoticon
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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agnostic:
Stickman3:

But the Earth gets warmer each time you cash your crypto out.


LOL just wait and see what happens when you try to cash your crypto out emoticon


You gonna start cravecoin - all your cravings on one distributed ledger ?
agnostic, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Stickman3:

You gonna start cravecoin - all your cravings on one distributed ledger ?

Nice idea but too inflationary emoticon 
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Ah, OK, the video caption says "Ten years from now, will we think of renewable energy as clean and green ?"
It's nearly ten years so we can have the answer.

Head to Carbon Brief - which seems like a level headed source using sound science.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-wind-nuclear-amazingly-low-carbon-footprints

“The study finds that electricity from fossil fuels, hydro and bioenergy has “significantly higher” embodied
energy, compared to nuclear, wind and solar power.

I continue to be amazed just how low the embodied energy use of solar, wind and nuclear power is, in
comparison with others,” study co-author Edgar Hertwich tells Carbon Brief."
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I've ended the original "Uncharted Territory" topic and I'm starting a new one using the most recent 2021 posts. The old version is just to big to use efficiently now.

Thanks, ya'll, for playing along.

So... let's get back to it.
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I read this morning that globally our ice is melting far faster than was predicted. Not a good thing at all:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/01/25/ice-melt-quickens-greenland-glaciers/
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I'm interested in the relationship between global energy use, atmospheric heat dissipation, and greenhouse gas emissions. Who's with me?
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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 The first YT thing I posted above has this info, see the slide at 1:37:38 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GyOYNwk5AM

It says in the caption, in french, that the source for this info is data from the World Bank (for the GDP numbers) and BP stat (for the CO2 emission). You should be able to get the primary numbers and check if his curve is correct or not... But this guy is ligt, so I wouldn't bother, honestly...
 
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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"I'm interested in the relationship between global energy use, atmospheric heat dissipation, and greenhouse gas emissions. Who's with me? "

Him over there!!
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/
https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Chris Marti
I'm interested in the relationship between global energy use, atmospheric heat dissipation, and greenhouse gas emissions. Who's with me?

OK so I suppose first thing to know is how much heat the Earth is capable of dissipating - what is the safe ceiling for the work we can do globally without, as he says, boiling ourselves ?

There's a whole discussion around his article about heat dissipation tech - gigantic heat exchangers, energy beams etc ?
I don't know if anyone had anything that worked and debunked his claim, but a lot can happen in science in 400 years.

If you're still interested Mr Marti, there's more
https://joshuaspodek.com/150-tom-murphy-part-1-do-the-math-the-language-of-nature-transcript
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Yeah, that's terrible news. emoticon

So are we saying that a low-technology small-scale way of life is the only sustainable option if we are honest and avoid the blind spots built into our systems? Or is that still under debate? I'm sorry to say that I haven't had the energy to keep track of the intense conversation. 

If it turns out that humanity really must transfer into a low-technology small-scale way of life, if that is even possible with such a huge population and limited resources*, I imagine that there would need to be lots of education and coordination on how to go about doing that. For one thing, not all low-technology small-scale methods are sustainable. Secondly, a lot of us westerners lack the survival skills that it would take. So how would that kind of transfer be organized? It seems like it would require the technology that it would set out to get us away from. Of course, there would still be lots of technology available that had already had the environmental production costs, so I suppose it would make sense to use that. But then? What kind of communication would be possible? How would knowledge be maintained and distributed? And what consequences would it have for the dharma? 

Appologies if I'm just repeating stuff that has already been said. Feel free to ignore me if I'm disrupting the flow of conversation with my ignorance. 

*) Of course the current throw-away mentality with regard to resources is not sustainable, that's for sure. 
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Well I wrote a huge message that got eaten. 

Basically it said : from my perspective, this is not a debate anymore. However, everyone who disagrees, will say that it is. So, you have to make an opinion, taking into account where people are coming from (ie, do they have conficts of interests, do they invest in green energies, do they work n IT companies, and such...)

The consensus I see within the community of people who approach this rationally and without conflicts-of-interest, is that what you're describing, which might actually more appropriately be called "returning to normal" - is gonna happen regardless of our attempts at controlling it. The degrees of chaos directly depend on our decisions now. However, decision making during the past 50 years, has reduced our margin for action to something extremely small and each year that passes ensures that we will experience higher and higer levels of disogranized breakdowns in the decades to come. But our decisions might still have an impact on whether it is milions or billions of people who will disappear during this "transition" back down to lower energy levels.

The good news is that people won't have to spend years on a cushion meditating to understand that they can't control life emoticon

The other good news is that we have evolved to exist like this, and we as europeans, linda, have abundant examples around us of what that might look like (think : historic city centers of all european towns).

Americans might have a tougher time with this because they are the historical epicenter of the consumerist mentality, the whole american dream thing is deeply ingrained in mentalities, and one does not have to wonder for long what what the fate of cities like LA will be.

The rest of the world is already in a "collapsed" state, or more accurately, still kind of live in a pre-industrial way, so this might be less of a problem for them to come to terms with, than for western baby boomers and their offsprings emoticon

Although they might actually be the most impacted - oops.

Cheers
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Brandon Dayton, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 461 Join Date: 9/24/19 Recent Posts
The other good news is that we have evolved to exist like this, and we as europeans, linda, have abundant examples around us of what that might look like (think : historic city centers of all european towns).

Americans might have a tougher time with this because they are the historical epicenter of the consumerist mentality, the whole american dream thing is deeply ingrained in mentalities, and one does not have to wonder for long what what the fate of cities like LA will be.

This is one of my main obsessions outside of meditation. Sadly, the US did not look too different from traditional Europe before we decided to go all in on the automobile. I go to neighborhood meetings now where residents complain about 2 million dollars for bike lane construction but then don't bat an eyelid that the Utah DOT is spending half a billion a year on road widening. Have you read any Andres Duany, James Kustler, or Charles Marohn? Really good stuff when it comes to understanding how America has fucked up the building of cities. (If you just want a taste: https://vimeo.com/9874554)

I don't even think you really have to do a ton of research to know that something is not right (although it helps to put things in focus). People are disconnected from any real sense of purpose, power or community. All the protests and building anger is an expression of this. They are all really motivated by the same things. They put different faces on their causes, but its the same sense of alientation, instability, and humiliation that drives them to the street. No one feels like they have any real control or safety in their lives. 

I just had a chat with a friend who has moved to rural Utah and started growing his own food. I'm hard pressed to think of any other action that could meaningfully make me feel prepared in the face of what is coming. I thought this discussion was also good in that regard:

​​​​​​​https://erraticus.co/2021/01/20/subsistence-agriculture-united-states-collapse-industrial-capitalism-ashley-colby/
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Brandon Dayton
The other good news is that we have evolved to exist like this, and we as europeans, linda, have abundant examples around us of what that might look like (think : historic city centers of all european towns).

Americans might have a tougher time with this because they are the historical epicenter of the consumerist mentality, the whole american dream thing is deeply ingrained in mentalities, and one does not have to wonder for long what what the fate of cities like LA will be.

This is one of my main obsessions outside of meditation. Sadly, the US did not look too different from traditional Europe before we decided to go all in on the automobile. I go to neighborhood meetings now where residents complain about 2 million dollars for bike lane construction but then don't bat an eyelid that the Utah DOT is spending half a billion a year on road widening. Have you read any Andres Duany, James Kustler, or Charles Marohn? Really good stuff when it comes to understanding how America has fucked up the building of cities. (If you just want a taste: https://vimeo.com/9874554)

I don't even think you really have to do a ton of research to know that something is not right (although it helps to put things in focus). People are disconnected from any real sense of purpose, power or community. All the protests and building anger is an expression of this. They are all really motivated by the same things. They put different faces on their causes, but its the same sense of alientation, instability, and humiliation that drives them to the street. No one feels like they have any real control or safety in their lives. 

I just had a chat with a friend who has moved to rural Utah and started growing his own food. I'm hard pressed to think of any other action that could meaningfully make me feel prepared in the face of what is coming. I thought this discussion was also good in that regard:

​​​​​​​https://erraticus.co/2021/01/20/subsistence-agriculture-united-states-collapse-industrial-capitalism-ashley-colby/

Well that new response system makes this a bit complex lol, it took me a while to find where your new message was, lol !

Right, yes, of course america was also traditional before the industrial revolution, but let's say it just led the way throughout the 20 th century and kind of became a symbol. But we are in no way different and share the same situation.

I agree with you that the meaningful responses to all that are pretty simple and intuitive... 

I've recently been kind of lightly reproached the attitude I have of just sucking up a huge wad of facts and then just pouring out a whole bunch of info, and I can really understand that. It's my way of making sure that people (who don't already understand this) won't be able to "look the other way", kind of, but maybe it's unskilful. 

But, as you say, all people except the most privileged are or will be affected by this, and do express these feelings, although they sometimes distort the explanation and say "it's because of trump" or "it's because of the democrats" or something like that, and this is freaky because it can really turn into bloodshed.

This is where I do think there is value in having a clear picture of the situation in broad, "scientific" terms, like I've been presenting things : to help keep remembering what's going on, in the face of what's coming - for I reckon that, because of the phenomenon I just mentioned, people will be pushing forward all kinds of perspectives and explanations for the simple fact that the way they used to live no longer works, and that it will be a kind of really confusing "fake news chaos" climate (well, "will be" is perhaps a bit optimistic emoticon).  

​​​​​​​All the best
 
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5319 Join Date: 12/8/18 Recent Posts
I don't think you are rambling at all. What you are proposing actually sounds doable, if only people would get on board collectively. Personally, I think the dharma would help me to go through with it, but yeah, I wouldn't be able to do it alone. Not all of it. The car thing is easy, though, because I don't have a driver's license. Once in a while (rarely) I do get someone to drive me some place, ironically mostly out in the nature. If nature would be more closeby, I wouldn't need that at all. I wish the infrastructure would be more allowing for environmental-friendly travelling, but I also think we humans are neurologically built for more local small-scale life. I can't afford travelling anyway, so right now it's a non-issue for me, and especially with the covid situation. I have loved ones far away, though. 

As for nuclear power, I'm gradually coming to accepting that I may very well have been wrong about it. My kid has given me long lectures about the assumed green alternatives, and some people in the poly community have expert knowledge on nuclear power, and compared to that, I can't deny that my opinions have been based more on fear than on actual knowledge. It still scares me, but that's just a feeling. 

Yeah, I know what you mean about wooden spoons. Ugh. Not to mention banning plastic bags. Or throwing out all plastic utensils - gah! People... 

I don't have much problem with being weird, lol. I sometimes describe myself as fabulously weird. Normality is overrated. I'm sick of the consumerism and how it's all based on throwing away and buying new versions of everything, especially technology. Devices get useless even if they haven't broken, despite being built to break, as new upgrades need more space because of built-in functions that are unnecessary anyway. Things can't be recycled effectively because different materials are all mixed. Things aren't compatible, can't be repaired, etc. It's madness! And the fashion industry with all short-term clothings and bling-bling is very unnecessary, I'd say, as is the constant development of new consumer products that promise to fill needs nobody had even imagined having to begin with, and with hundreds of different versions, all of the same poor quality. I don't think it makes anyone happy in the long run. I actually think that a lot in our society is against human nature. It just matches some triggers that evolution brought forth and that would actually be helpful if we would live the lives that favored them in our genes. 

I think I would be much happier in a society like the one you describe, and I think that would be the case for most of my neurodivergent friends, as society as it is tends to wear us out. I believe that happiness would increase in general, in the long run. The transition, however... Yeah, people will probably resist it all too long for it to happen smoothly, because of attachment and aversion and self-grasping, and people will probably fight for resources rather than trust each other to only take what is needed. That's sad. 
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö
I don't think you are rambling at all. What you are proposing actually sounds doable, if only people would get on board collectively. Personally, I think the dharma would help me to go through with it, but yeah, I wouldn't be able to do it alone. 

Doesn't it ! It is the way humans have always lived, so I agree with you that it's probably actually more in line with human nature...

I don't have much problem with being weird, lol. I sometimes describe myself as fabulously weird. Normality is overrated.

Right ! But I think for a lot of people, normality and conventionality is pretty important, and that that's a strong factor.

...I actually think that a lot in our society is against human nature. It just matches some triggers that evolution brought forth and that would actually be helpful if we would live the lives that favored them in our genes. 

Yes madam.

I think I would be much happier in a society like the one you describe, and I think that would be the case for most of my neurodivergent friends, as society as it is tends to wear us out. ​​​​​​​I believe that happiness would increase in general, in the long run.

Me too emoticon

The transition, however... Yeah, people will probably resist it all too long for it to happen smoothly, because of attachment and aversion and self-grasping, and people will probably fight for resources rather than trust each other to only take what is needed. That's sad. 
Yes, that is the tragedy of it... Very very sad. The terrible thing is that some people will make things worse by clinging to illusions of control rather than surrender. 

I'm really starting to think that people who agree with what we've been saying, should get together, and just build something parallel that will easily detach from the current fossil fuel consumerism based social function when the times comes... Propose and embody an alternative which will be viable when the SHTF. I like the image of the new branch coming out of the dying tree, which actually starts taking over and becomes its own tree. https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fc8.alamy.com%2Fcomp%2FB8JXTC%2Fnew-branches-coming-out-of-a-dead-tree-B8JXTC.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

But yeah, we shouldn't kid ourselves, it's not gonna be all fairies and rainbows... emoticon
George S, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 1544 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
It’s interesting that developing countries are most impacted by climate change but developed countries are most concerned about it. My crude guess is that most poor people want a better material standard of living whereas many rich people know that more money doesn’t bring more happiness once you have the essentials covered (food, shelter, medicine). By “rich people” I mean anyone who has those essentials, which would include people without much money living in developed countries which have strong social welfare programs. 

It’s natural and right that rich people worry about climate change, but what the poor hear is ‘don’t bother, it’s not that great up here’, which sounds disingenuous. If the rich countries are willing to give up some of their material standard of living to reduce emissions, the poor countries will be very happy to narrow the gap I suspect. I know the economy is not a zero-sum game, but getting closer to the top does confer disproportionate advantages (e.g. America’s “exorbitant privilege” of controlling the world’s reserve currency, which it gained after emerging as the main victor of WWII).

My sense is that China still harbors a lot of grievance due to western imperialism and is very focused on getting (back) to the top. Sure they make some of the right noises on climate change, but I imagine that they are laughing at the developed world’s growing willingness to concede its material advantage. Personally I don’t have a position either way, just presenting a different perspective. Although if the tables are turned though over the next 100 years, I can’t help wondering whether newly poor greens in developed countries will still feel the same way about things. Declining standards of living are generally harbingers of social unrest and the collapse of large power blocs …

EDIT: re-reading what I wrote, it does sound pretty cynical. Also I realized that I do have a personal position - I don't mind paying for reduced emissions and I think it's the right thing to do. I vote that way, even if I'm not an activist. I still think it's worth considering history, realpolitik and unintended consequences though. Here's a joke I just thought of:

young person: bitcoin is the future
older person: don't tell me about the future
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J W, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 377 Join Date: 2/11/20 Recent Posts
Sorry to introduce another hot/controversial topic but have we talked about memestonks yet?

Hot take:
"GameStop is doing a better job at distributing wealth to americans during a pandemic than the US government." - Rod Breslau

Perhaps this is not the place for such frivolous topics. If so, please ignore. Personally, I find it fascinating.
George S, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 1544 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Typical late bull froth
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 34 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"young person: bitcoin is the future
older person: don't tell me about the future "
Maybe. Maybe Yuan. Impermanent. At 7 transactions per second BTC won't be the world reserve.
Maybe the below chart shows an ongoing trend that started in Sumer (an economist would be handy here), but maybe there's a chance that a chart like this only holds true for holocene civilizations that rely on things like ice caps, predictable ocean currents, rain that falls on your crops and not your rival's etc etc. ie a big reshuffle is on the way.



What do you think of this ?
https://jembendell.com/2019/11/01/the-spiritual-invitation-of-climate-chaos
I think his interpretation of the evidence is likely skewed unhelpfully towards doom, but the upper-ups of the climate movement seem to be getting into spirituality, for better or worse.

And, also, ecophilosophy question - do experiences that people intepret as being connected to Gaia really signify A&P type events ?
George S, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 1544 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Yeah agreed bitcoin has a long way to go. A successful currency needs to have some inflationary credit creation mechanism built in otherwise it doesn’t get used enough (Gresham’s Law). The dollar is slowly losing world reserve status and then the world will probably run on a multi-currency reserve system for a while. The interesting thing about your chart is the 80-100 year cycles. I like the theory of Strauss and Howe which says that historical patterns repeat in ~80 year cycles because that’s the maximum the length of a generation. After 80 years everyone who experienced the last war or crisis is dead, hence humanity is free to repeat the mistakes of the past! I really recommend their book the Fourth Turning because it also gives a convincing account of how psychological patterns cycle as each generation tries to compensate for the excess or paucity of nurturing prevalent in their parents’ generation.

I just skimmed Bendell’s article. I don’t doubt that climate change is a major threat and in some ways it’s more structural and permanent-seeming than previous threats facing humanity. However it’s worth bearing in mind that a certain kind of apocalyptic viewpoint has always sold well throughout history. How must the world have looked like at the low point of the black depth when the population of Europe was reduced by half? How many people alive today remember the apocalyptic climate of fear surrounding nuclear proliferation in the 1950s? (still unresolved!) It seems that every generation has its major apocalyptic fears and time has a funny habit of moving the goalposts.
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 34 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"How many people alive today remember the apocalyptic climate of fear surrounding nuclear proliferation in the 1950s?"

Somewhere in Siberia there's a warhead with my coordinates dialled in. The world can't allow Russia to collapse they have 7000 nukes.
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 34 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"The interesting thing about your chart is the 80-100 year cycles. Fourth turning etc..."
Interesting point. Someone once pointed out that the world financial centre keeps moving West - starting in Iraq.... Paris, London, New York. Next stop LA or Beijing ? I suppose now it's detirmined by things like length of fibre optic cables for high frequency trading.

"I just skimmed Bendell’s article."
Aw, I thought people would be interested in the buddhistyness of it.

And, ah, what about the A&P bit ? I see loads of this. People find ecstasy - through whatever means - and boom they're warriors of Gaia. There's a whole religion beng synthesised at the moment that's supposed to replace the Judeo-Christian tradition with something more tree friendly.
Stickman3, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 34 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"....it’s worth bearing in mind that a certain kind of apocalyptic viewpoint has always sold well throughout history. How must the world have looked like at the low point of the black depth when the population of Europe was reduced by half? How many people alive today remember the apocalyptic climate of fear surrounding nuclear proliferation in the 1950s?"

...but the black death really happened, and it really was the end of a way of life.

...debates continue as to whether plagues have brought down civilizations. Either way, civilizations tend to come and go.

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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 3869 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
We're living through a global pandemic right now. I think it's horrifying, but even SARS COV-2 pales in comparison to the ultimate effects of climate change.

I'm convinced that the global climate, without some kind of miracle happening, will continue to get worse, people will be forced to migrate, other people will perish, and earth's climate will change. You can talk about doomsayers not getting it right all day long, but this one is baked in. Most of the damage is already done. So the idea that doomsayers missed on this or that catastrophe is missing the bigger, and scientifically dire, picture.

So is there a miracle that can change the trajectory of climate change? I have no idea what that could possibly be.
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
I would advise people to form their own opinions on this, to read some of the numerous, quality sources of reference provided throughout this thread and the first part from which it sprung - in depth, don't just skim through them. 20 h is probably a minimum of focused study to form a half-informed opinion on the matter. Don't let your opinion be swayed by accusations of historical ignorance and half-baked arguments based on limited knowledge. Realize that what I said about people having conflicts of interest, is true of this thread, too - can you guess who works/used to work in the world of finance here ? emoticon Keep the big picture in mind. Don't settle for status quo and be bold ! Status quo is the worst possible course for our future. Question your judgment when appropriate, but when the evidence is sufficient, settle the question decisively. In these matters as with many, doubt and uncertainty can be surprisingly devilish. This is of life and death importance for many, many, many people...
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 3869 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Realize that what I said about people having conflicts of interest, is true of this thread, too - can you guess who works/used to work in the world of finance here ?

​​​​​​​Hey, are you talking to me?
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Nope emoticon. Also, your comment was posted while i was typing mine in ! And it basically seems to express the same sentiment as what I was writing...
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 3869 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Just checking - I used to be a commercial banker. Many years ago, but you were getting close to the bone.  emoticon
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
How could I have known that ? emoticon Sorry for being divisively suggestive here, but it was my best attempt at not being straightforwardly insulting - i'm feeling pretty roguish today... 

Pretty funny though ! 
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Chris Marti, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 3869 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
How could I have known that ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​LinkedIn - the internet user's best friend!
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Olivier, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Oh yeah, i did see your profile on there one time, but did not pick up on that. anyways...
George S, modified 2 Months ago.

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 1544 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
I used to work in the "world of finance" ... what's the conflict of interest?

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