Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

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Olivier, modified 1 Month ago.

Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Dear All,

Here is a quality conference by a leading epidemiologist on the global covid data. At the end is a very interesting discussion with other leading epidemiologist Didier Raoult who, for once, risks giving his opinion on what's gonna happen with the disease - he says it will vanish this year. 

Conference

Fun fact : they estimate that about 1/4 of the global population has gotten covid. People under 65 without comorbidities are extremely unlikely to die from this - in fact, in 2020, during which france has been under strict lockdown for over three months, numbers show that there has actually been an overall dicrease in mortality in people <65 in france. Funner fact still : mitigation measures have been utterly inefficient, and in particular, lockdowns seem totally counterproductive - not protecting vulnerable populations, ie, old people in nursing homes, or people with serious sicknesses, but creating pretty big problems for people under no particular risk at all. And litterally, it seems, most probably making things worse (see at around 25:30).

Anyways, worth watching, just makes one want to relax about the whole thing. emoticon And also reflect on how much of all this was just a panick with intense media relay... Which is also a subject that's talked about during the discussion at the end.

Hope you enjoy,

​​​​​​​Cheers
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Chris Marti, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 3844 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Olivier, my impression from here in the US is that our public health officials are extremely risk-averse, so we locked down last March, at least most of did. There are places in the US that weren't locked down, or at least not as much, and those places had upticks in COVID infections later than those of us who had those upticks earlier in the pandemic. I'd like to see the infection rate, positivity rate, death rate, and testing data on states that locked down vs those that didn't. My guess (purely a guess) - I don't suspect it mattered much what your state did. People got sick, some people got moderately sick, some extremely sick, and some were asymptomatic. I do think the lockdown worked for privileged people like me who could work from home every day and didn't have to enter a people-packed workplace. For those people, and for small businesses who depend on having in-person patronage, the lockdown didn't work. In fact, it caused a huge amount of economic pain and suffering.

The pandemic is a mixed bag of causes and effects depending on individual circumstances, capabilities, government rules and regulations, public health policy, access to medical care, and many other factors.

But what do I know?
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Olivier, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
I like his last recommendation at around 43:50 : "Please don't destroy the whole world with aggressive measures".
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Olivier, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
And his last slide, at 44:00, is excellent, in providing context here. 

Draconian measures for covid have caused dramatic social, psychological, economic damage. Yet, according to current estimates, even if we did nothing to curb this pandemic, the global casualties would be something like 8 million over 5 years, mostly in >65 age groups. 

Every year, 8 million deaths occur because of tabacco...

Nothing new of course, but always a good reminder.
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Chris Marti, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 3844 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
It took US public health officials months to recommend the wearing of masks. Masks are, without a doubt, the most effective personal tool we can use against the spread of this disease.

Now we're seeing a very dramatic drop in our infection rates. I've been watching this and reading about it, and it would appear that SARS COV-2 is a seasonal virus, like influenza, so it naturally waxes and wanes at certain times of the year. 

I've also been studying the effects of vitamin D levels on COVID infection rates. That's another place where little has been said or done, but which seems to have a material effect on infections.
George S, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 1486 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Wait, wasn't a reduction in economic activity something we wanted to reduce global warming?!
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Chris Marti, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 3844 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Wait, wasn't a reduction in economic activity something we wanted to reduce global warming?!

George, I think you're smarter than this. I'm pretty sure you know the difference between the kind of socially and environmentally responsible reductions in economic activity and energy use that we were talking about in another topic and the drastic, overnight de-activation of hundreds of thousands of the kind of small, local businesses that we want to maintain, and that keep millions of human beings sustained.
George S, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 1486 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
The goal was to cut GDP by 4% a year. It seems to me that a world where we are cutting out unnecessary travel, consuming less, growing more of our own food, making and fixing more of our own stuff and insourcing more of our services, is going to have a lot fewer big and small businesses and feel a lot more like lockdown than pre-lockdown. Also, the biggest cause of global warming is too many human beings in the first place! I'm not necessarily advocating for all this stuff, I'm just pointing out what I see as certain inconsistencies between what we say we want and what we actually want and do.
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Chris Marti, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 3844 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
... and feel a lot more like lockdown than pre-lockdown.

I'm not sure I understand this comment. Can you elaborate?

And I have to ask you this question - are you just defending your earlier comment or are you truly interested in a more detailed discussion? I'm not sure what an economy with less large-scale industrial manufacturing and distribution and more local sourcing of essential materials would look like. I'm curious about this, however, but I'm not interested in an ideology-based argument. Rather would prefer to explore the possibilities.
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Olivier, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 731 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
George, we recognize your intelligence and qualities as a person. You're doing hard work facing personal issues boldly these days here on this forum, and that takes courage. It's pretty impressive, although it seems from a distance it must be a dry and frustrating process. 

However I must say I feel that in this case, if the questions raised here could be held in awareness a bit longer and with a broader view, like you're skilfully doing with all that personal stuff - not jumping to exciting conclusions too quickly, remembering that reality is always quite nuanced, etc. - the seeming inconsistencies you pointed out would dissolve under that kind of scrutiny.

Take care.
George S, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 1486 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
[quote=]
Chris Marti
... and feel a lot more like lockdown than pre-lockdown.

I'm not sure I understand this comment. Can you elaborate?

And I have to ask you this question - are you just defending your earlier comment or are you truly interested in a more detailed discussion? I'm not sure what an economy with less large-scale industrial manufacturing and distribution and more local sourcing of essential materials would look like. I'm curious about this, however, but I'm not interested in an ideology-based argument. Rather would prefer to explore the possibilities.

I'm genuinely interested in what life would look like with a meaningful annual reduction in GDP and energy consumption. It was not our intention, but we more than halved our footprint by moving in with my in-laws a year ago. There are definitely challenges involved in living in an extended household, but overall it has been an enriching experience for everyone. Cutting out all non-essential travel and in-person socializing has also been less burdensome and more liberating than I would have expected. I'm not even sure now that I would want to go back to how it was before. So yes, I'm interested in how others see this working without resembling a "lockdown" in some sense.
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J W, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 366 Join Date: 2/11/20 Recent Posts
Ok so i can't tell if we're pro-lockdown or anti-lockdown here (maybe both?). But I'll say this : they say money don't grow on trees but it literally does. 

UBI would solve a lot of problems.  
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Nicky2, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 48 Join Date: 4/18/20 Recent Posts
J W
Ok so i can't tell if we're pro-lockdown or anti-lockdown here (maybe both?). But I'll say this : they say money don't grow on trees but it literally does. 

UBI would solve a lot of problems.  


UBI is not possible. It will be a form of slavery; just as the explosion in government debt will probably lead to a stripping or sell-off of public assets. 

WHO never recommend lockdowns (apart from very short term). Lockdowns are to redistribute wealth to the larger corporations. 
George S, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 1486 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Olivier:

You're right, I'm chasing shadows - excess of air element! emoticon

Enjoy the rest of your retreat emoticon
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Chris Marti, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 3844 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Interesting article on the global COVID pandemic in The New Yorker - "Why Does the Pandemic Seem to be HItting Some Countries Harder Than Others?"  I found this article to be a good read:

And there lies an epidemiological mystery. The usual trend of death from infectious diseases—malaria, typhoid, diphtheria, H.I.V.—follows a dismal pattern. Lower-income countries are hardest hit, with high-income countries the least affected. But if you look at the pattern of covid-19 deaths reported per capita—deaths, not infections—Belgium, Italy, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom are among the worst off. The reported death rate in India, which has 1.3 billion people and a rickety, ad-hoc public-health infrastructure, is roughly a tenth of what it is in the United States. In Nigeria, with a population of some two hundred million, the reported death rate is less than a hundredth of the U.S. rate. Rich countries, with sophisticated health-care systems, seem to have suffered the worst ravages of the infection. Death rates in poorer countries—particularly in South Asia and large swaths of sub-Saharan Africa—appear curiously low. (South Africa, which accounts for most of sub-Saharan Africa’s reported covid-19 deaths, is an important exception.)
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Nicky2, modified 1 Month ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 48 Join Date: 4/18/20 Recent Posts
Olivier<h4 title="Good covid conference by John Ioannidis">John Ioannidis</h4>

​​​​​​​Thank you. I have listened and read John Ioannidis before. Excellent. 
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Nicky2, modified 29 Days ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 48 Join Date: 4/18/20 Recent Posts
Olivier

Hope you enjoy,

​​​​​​​Cheers

​​​​​​​Thank you again Olivier. I listened to the whole conference. J.I. is amazing. 
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Ni Nurta, modified 27 Days ago.

RE: Good covid conference by John Ioannidis

Posts: 614 Join Date: 2/22/20 Recent Posts
at least after we get forced vaccination there is apparently non-zero chance we won't get health issues from vaccination
and when we do get covid (cause why not? it is not like they actually tested if these vaccines protect agains the virus) they won't test us for it so we wont increase covid death rates which is a plus

2020 was bad but 2021 will be better
hopefully there will be 2022
but at this point all I can do is to investigate any clinging to this "living" thing so in case I will be dying from vaccination I am prepared emoticon

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