RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/19/21 4:04 PM
RE: RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/19/21 4:09 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/20/21 7:02 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 7:36 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/20/21 8:11 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/20/21 8:17 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 9:41 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory shargrol 1/20/21 10:50 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/20/21 12:36 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/20/21 2:56 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 5:34 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 3:28 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 3:18 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 3:22 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/20/21 3:33 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/21/21 6:53 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/21/21 8:00 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/21/21 8:59 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory J W 1/21/21 10:04 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/21/21 9:58 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/21/21 10:13 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory J W 1/21/21 10:27 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Olivier S 1/21/21 11:00 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory J W 1/21/21 10:59 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/21/21 12:34 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory J W 1/21/21 12:40 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/21/21 12:46 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Chris M 1/21/21 3:22 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 shargrol 1/21/21 3:59 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/21/21 5:05 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 shargrol 1/22/21 9:18 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/22/21 9:22 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 George S 1/22/21 12:25 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 1/22/21 1:24 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/21/21 10:59 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Stickman3 1/22/21 1:47 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/22/21 12:24 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory Stickman3 1/23/21 6:05 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory George S 1/23/21 7:45 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory Stickman3 1/22/21 9:58 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/21/21 12:33 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/26/21 10:16 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/26/21 10:15 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/26/21 10:37 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 1/26/21 3:00 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 1/27/21 9:29 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö 1/26/21 9:25 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/26/21 10:36 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Brandon Dayton 2/3/21 5:00 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/4/21 7:31 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö 2/4/21 5:36 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/4/21 7:44 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 George S 1/27/21 8:35 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 J W 1/27/21 2:32 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 George S 1/27/21 5:20 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 1/28/21 10:27 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 George S 1/28/21 12:45 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 1/28/21 1:57 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 1/28/21 2:21 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 2/5/21 2:23 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/28/21 1:26 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/28/21 1:38 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/28/21 1:58 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/28/21 2:16 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/28/21 2:33 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/28/21 2:49 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/28/21 2:56 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/28/21 3:17 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 George S 1/28/21 6:33 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 1/31/21 11:57 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 2/3/21 2:28 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Hector L 1/31/21 1:22 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 1/31/21 6:29 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö 2/3/21 2:53 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/3/21 4:01 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 2/4/21 6:56 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 2/4/21 7:40 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/4/21 7:47 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 2/4/21 7:50 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/4/21 8:20 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 2/4/21 8:36 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/4/21 9:11 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 2/4/21 9:38 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö 2/4/21 10:03 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö 2/4/21 10:08 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/11/21 7:35 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 2/11/21 6:57 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Olivier S 2/11/21 7:37 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 George S 2/11/21 8:13 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 J W 2/11/21 10:21 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 3/28/21 9:31 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 4/10/21 6:15 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 4/3/21 3:00 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 4/4/21 9:05 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 4/5/21 6:56 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 4/5/21 6:35 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 4/5/21 4:25 PM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Chris M 4/6/21 6:35 AM
RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2 Stickman3 4/6/21 3:00 PM
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/19/21 4:04 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/19/21 4:04 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Chris Marti:
Dear Tim,

Thank you for your concern! I am not, nor will I be, considering suicide. It's just not my thing. I was thinking in terms of probabilities and Boolean logic, and then I typed the offending sentence. I'm sorry. I'll work harder to communicate with more concern for everyone's possible reaction to my words.

Yours in solidarity,

CM
Well, see, there you go, it was just a language thing. In Boolean logic, death is a 0, so if I'd recognized your angle I wouldn't have given it a moment's thought, no value change, no problem. I was misreading you anyway, thinking you were treating death as a 1, so forgive me for that. And thank you for the reassurance, in any case.

yours in these uncharted waters,
tf
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/19/21 4:09 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/19/21 4:08 PM

RE: RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Weird... 

Let me try again.

I wrote a post saying this :

There seems to be a linear function correlating energy consumption with GDP. It's also linear between emissions and GDP. This is true if you measure world emissions, not so much if you measure by country, because outsourcing introduces biases. 

If we wanted to stay at +2C by 2100, we would have to reduce world emissions/consumption by 5% each year. That means, also contracting the world GDP by 4% each year. 

Just saying.

See this presentation for sources, at 1:36:xx-1:37:xx : Jancovici at EIVP
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 7:02 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 7:02 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I would ask this question - is energy consumption vs GDP the underlying issue here in regard to climate change? (I need to research his relationship.) Or is the ultimate issue the nature of the sources of our energy? I'm thinking that energy sources like wind and solar will slowly replace oil and gas and that the nature of the energy sources we use may then alter the emissions problems we have.

Thinking out loud.
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 7:36 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 7:33 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Yes, it is. It's just physical constraints, thermodynamics...

Solar and wind are not less poluting, they definitely don't represent sustainable sources of energy. That is green washing :p

The problem is how much we consume every day, and it kind of comes down to that. The equivalent of 500 energetic slaves per person, in europe at least.

Humanity lived sustainably throughout its whole history, with far less energy available - most people worked in agriculture, and the small surpluses were enough to feed only several, perhaps tens of thousands of individuals in the cities which could not exceed a certain size because of physical constraints. Until the industrial revolutions and discovery of fossil fuels.

Hence the massive growth of societies in the past two centuries.

Money and wealth are basically energy. Take out energy, take out wealth.

It's not like this is something that's a question anymore... If you have doubts, do the research, please...

There is no going around that, and anyone telling you that is either in denial and living in a fairy tale from which he will crash HARD in the decades to come, or lying to you emoticon

We have two choices : voluntarily cultivate sobriety through imposing ourselves massive constraints - that is the least pleasant in the short term but most beneficial in the long run. Or keep going the same way and have massive constraints be imposed on us from the outside - that is nicer in the short term but more serious in the long run. In any case, massive degrowth is underway.
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 8:11 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 8:10 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Olivier:

Solar and wind are not less poluting, they definitely don't represent sustainable sources of energy. That is green washing :p

Just curious, how is solar/wind not sustainable? (other than the obvious fact that the sun will eventually run out of fuel!) And polluting? (other than land use)

I agree with most of what you say about growth, I just don't see it happening en masse voluntarily or by government mandate (at least not until the environment degrades significantly more).

Humans can be quite ingenious though. What about nuclear fusion? Or maybe just more fuel-efficient technology? I don't know, I haven't done any research into this.
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 8:17 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 8:17 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Olivier, pardon me if I do the research myself  emoticon
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 9:41 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 9:41 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Do it ......................... emoticon 
shargrol, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 10:50 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 10:50 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 2757 Join Date: 2/8/16 Recent Posts
Chris Marti:
Olivier, pardon me if I do the research myself  emoticon


I found that the movie "planet of the humans" was a good quick-view of some of the downsides of solar/wind. I wouldn't take it as gospel, but it did shake my confidence that the solution is easy. (There's also a fact check section on the website that shows the sources/references https://planetofthehumans.com/fact-check-bible/)
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 12:36 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 11:43 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Seems like taking a 4% pay cut each year and having less kids might in fact be the best solution (and I'm not being sarcastic here either)
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 2:56 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 2:53 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Here's a Google presentation that supports what Olivier is saying. Caveat: this video is from 2012. I plan to try to find out if the technologies and costs referenced in this video have materially changed the picture presented in this video over the succeeding nine years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6uVnyjTb58

FYI: Thanks to shargrol for the link to https://planetofthehumans.com/fact-check-bible/, which is where I found the video.
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 5:34 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:04 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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What Olivier is saying is very well supported by a bunch of very serious engineers and scientists .... emoticon

One great source is the one I just gave for instance, Jean-Marc Jancovici is THE reference on this in france these days - he probably has a lot of stuff in english or subbed in english.

FWIW, guess who originally linked the planet of the humans documentary upthread :p The guy in this video is a main feature of the movie.

It's also a bit ironic that Google, who are pretending now that they're gonna go "transparent", are hosting this while furthering their importance in people's life by implying that it doesn't plute to use google, thus reinforcing the dependence upon the complex industrial chains from extraction to transformation to... etc., which come into the making of the high tech stuff and 5G stuff....
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:28 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:12 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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For instance, a talk in the most prestigious french higher education institution, École Normale Supérieure (1h30 long vid) Can we save energy, jobs and growth at the same time ? 08/01/2018

He's actualy pretty funny and his accent is pretty good emoticon
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:18 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:18 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
A 1 min long element of response to your question Chris : Jancovici : Carbon Impact of IT system - 16/05/2019
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:22 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:22 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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One 2 h course among a series given at one of the most important engineer schools in France, with english subs : Renewable energies - École des Mines - Jancovici
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:33 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/20/21 3:33 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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And finally, a more introductory thing, which lasts 11 min, so that we have something for all time budgets and tastes emoticonEnergy : basics for an informed debate
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 6:53 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 6:53 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
So.... I'm happy I've never invested in Bitcoin.
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 8:00 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 8:00 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Why bitcoin in particular ? (I didn't watch every single conference i linked :p)
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 8:59 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 8:59 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Mining Bitcoin (making the currency) involves solving massively complex algorithms using huge server farms that suck massive amounts of energy:

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
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J W, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:04 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 9:20 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 739 Join Date: 2/11/20 Recent Posts
Chris Marti:
Mining Bitcoin (making the currency) involves solving massively complex algorithms using huge server farms that suck massive amounts of energy:

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
Counter-point: those server farms (which only takes a tiny percentage of global energy consumption) could be powered by renewables if that infrastructure was in place, which it is not. So it's as much a systemic problem as anything else.

Counter-counter-point: I am biased and just want to feel better about my participation in the crypto space emoticon

And also, it is crazy that mining Bitcoin now has a larger footprint than mining gold. (only recently, though) There was a time only 5-10 years ago where it could be done from one's closet.

(Edit, now that I read the link in more depth.)
It is a scary metric that Bitcoin mining now constitutes half of all global data center usage (if indeed true, which I'm not sure what their methodology was here)
But keep in mind there are already solutions being worked on to make Bitcoin/ other cryptos greener.

For example:
https://techfastly.com/proof-of-stake-vs-proof-of-work/

Also, I don't have the numbers, but i would guess that 'global data center usage' is not one of the larger sources of energy consumption, compared to things like transportation, home energy consumption, etc.

Perhaps a better metric to look at would be the total power consumption of the Bitcoin network, which was around that of Switzerland as of a year ago. Probably more now, but not sooo much more.

It seems like a lot but looking at it another way, 
"Bitcoin is using around seven gigawatts of electricity, equal to 0.21% of the world's supply"

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48853230#:~:text=Currently%2C%20the%20tool%20estimates%20that,same%20power%20consumption%20as%20Switzerland.

And also keep in mind, Bitcoin is now the world's 5th largest currency (!) 
It's complicated...
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 9:58 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 9:58 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Yeah but the bitcoin footprint goes down as the price goes up ... buy, buy buy! emoticon
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:13 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:00 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I know very few people who seem to be able to grasp the magnitude of all this, the systemic nature of the problem, interconnectivity of all aspects of it, or maybe rather, who are willing to take the very minimum time of 20 hours to study this situation in decent detail...

edit : Not said from a place of high-spouting, but from genuine perplexity at a disconcerting state of affairs... Sorry if this sounds unpleasant, but the feeling I get these days when I think about this, is the same I would get if I had a cousin who was addicted to crack, and to tackle the problem, decided to start eating organic yoghurts (but not give up the crack)... :p
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J W, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:27 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:27 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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agnostic:
Yeah but the bitcoin footprint goes down as the price goes up ... buy, buy buy! emoticon

Well, another nuanced look at it:

https://medium.com/@hillpot/bitcoin-vs-gold-which-hurts-the-environment-more-75193863dfb6#:~:text=At%20the%20end%20of%20the,required%20to%20maintain%20its%20network.

"As of November 2020Bitcoin energy consumption was estimated to be around 76.87 terawatt hours per year"

"gold-mining operations expend 132 terawatt-hours per year. That’s a little closer to Poland."
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 11:00 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:55 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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Debating the individual merits and defects of small aspects of the whole thing like bitcoins, prevent us from getting the broad picture.

Even if bittcoins themselves consumed 0, there would still need to be coal plants, many kinds of mining and factories, complex industrial chains and globalized physical fluxes just to construct the hardware necessary for this "dematerialized stuff" to exist.

It cannot exist without that.

Even if we outsource all production to china, that's still not even close to "net 0". If we are honest and take into account that stuff built in china, pollutes in china, and china uses mostly coal, as do most of the world, well actually we come to understand why we keep emitting more and more and consuming more and more each year that passes. However, countries like the northen european countries, outsource a lot of their polution and then claim to be clean because they only count what's emitted within the national borders... Cunning, innit.

The system is extremely interdependent. Classical economy has HUGE blindspots which prevent it from understanding that. It takes resources for granted. 

This is gonna keep going as long as we don't look at things in the most general terms possible.

It's the Unit efficiency VS volume debate that Jancovici talks about : we are making more energy efficient cars these days ; but we produce much bigger cars, we produce much more cars, and we drive much more. Conclusion, on the whole, we are polluting much more. But everybody everywhere, is using the Unit efficiency thing as a sales argument. What matters is how much we contribute to the warming of the atmosphere.

They make a new smartphone that pollutes three times less than the old one. You buy it, and sell the other one. Well, you still have the polution from the previous one, and on top of that, you had the same amounet divided by three. And the old one is actually still in service somewhere, or slowly decomposing on a beach in India... emoticon etc.

Same goes with "green energies". They never replace consumption of fossil fuels anywhere. They just add a bit of consumption to the mix. Just look it up ... !

Two things :

Given the Co2 that's already in the air, we will get to +1.5C by 2100, even if we stopped poluting entirely tomorrow. 

Staying at +2C would require us to diminish global emissions by 5% each year. That's what happened in 2020 thanks to corona. 

+2C average global temperature means that in many regions in the world, there will actually be hundreds of days per year where people cannot go outside, because they would die from heat+humidity forming actually lethal atmospheric conditions. It also means no more corals in the ocean. Which is something that would probably have dramatic consequences on all marine ecosystems...

So, the general idea is that we need a 4% reduction of GDP per year for the next decades in order to avoid really, really catastrophic things.

The solutions exist and are pretty simple, we just don't want to face them... We know how to be renewable, because we've been renewable since the beginning, until the 1800's.

So what do we do ?

Let go of the technological hubris, and humbly look to the past. That's my perhaps not so H opinion.

(Said with no hard feelings for anyone in particular <3)
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J W, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:59 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:59 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 739 Join Date: 2/11/20 Recent Posts
Olivier:
Debating the individual merits and defects of small aspects of the whole thing like bitcoins, prevent us from getting the broad picture.



I couldn't agree more, mostly just responding to the argument against Bitcoin made earlier (which has become a popular argument in recent days), by providing alternative ways of looking at what I do think is a fascinating topic, considering that virtually nobody thought Bitcoin would become so huge as it is today.

(again... 5th largest currency in the world, right now emoticon)
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:34 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:27 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
I'm sorry I ever mentioned bitcoin. I take it back.

emoticon
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J W, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:40 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:39 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 739 Join Date: 2/11/20 Recent Posts
Chris Marti:
I'm sorry I ever mentioned bitcoin. I take it back.

emoticon
Why? it's just another opportunity to discuss impermanance and dependent origination... and potentially lose a whole lot of money emoticon
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:46 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:44 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

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I'm proposing a Corollary to Gresham's Law: as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of bitcoin being mentioned tends to 1.

EDIT: maybe that should be Gresham's Corollary to Godwin's Law, I don't know
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 3:22 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 3:22 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Well, you paraphrased Godwin's Law, so that's where it should be classified.

Ontology matters!
shargrol, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 3:59 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 3:59 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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On the efficiency vs. volume (or mass effect as I call it)...

Ironically first popularized by an observation of efficiency of coal use: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 5:05 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 5:05 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Wow, that's from a while back... 
In 1865, the English economist William Stanley Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal-use led to the increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries.

He argued that, contrary to common intuition, technological progress could not be relied upon to reduce fuel consumption. (lol)

shargrol, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 9:18 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 9:17 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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It's amazing how long ago that was... and yet how very very recent all of this is.

Amazing to think that all food was organic before 1940s and most labor was human and animal powered before ~1760, etc etc. 
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 9:22 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 9:22 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
It's been called exponential growth emoticon

There's a whole group of people whose careers now center on studying this kind of technology acceleration, not the least among them Ray Kurzweil. Moore's Law tends to be their most basic tenet.
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 12:25 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 12:25 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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shargrol:
It's amazing how long ago that was... and yet how very very recent all of this is.

Amazing to think that all food was organic before 1940s and most labor was human and animal powered before ~1760, etc etc. 

Sorry to be a party pooper, but it's also amazing to think how life expectancy has increased from around 40 in 1750 to 60 in 1940 and 80 today! (UK data)
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 1:24 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 1:24 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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agnostic:
shargrol:
It's amazing how long ago that was... and yet how very very recent all of this is.

Amazing to think that all food was organic before 1940s and most labor was human and animal powered before ~1760, etc etc. 

Sorry to be a party pooper, but it's also amazing to think how life expectancy has increased from around 40 in 1750 to 60 in 1940 and 80 today! (UK data)
Ourworldindata - hours of fun!
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:59 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 10:58 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
It's not a serious problem, 90% of all bitcoin has already been mined. Even if the price goes up a lot, within a few decades it will beome uneconomic to mine the rest. Ok great, so now we're all using bitcoin, no more is being mined and the footprint has gone way down ... now all we have to do is worry about deflation!

We've been here before, during the black death there was massive deflation, which was eventually "solved" by population growth and discovering new sources of gold in the new world.

This kind of deflationary-inflationary cycle has happened many times over human history I suspect. It's almost like the temperature or energy of the human race itself seems to wax and wane in long-term cycles.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 1:47 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 10:09 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"Yeah but the bitcoin footprint goes down as the price goes up ... buy, buy, buy!"

But the Earth gets warmer each time you cash your crypto out.

A cunning problem nobody thinks about  -->

"...the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth rate (conveniently chosen to represent a 10× increase every century), we would reach boiling temperature in about 400 years. [Pained expression from economist.] And this statement is independent of technology. Even if we don’t have a name for the energy source yet, as long as it obeys thermodynamics, we cook ourselves with perpetual energy increase."

Oo. Problem. Maybe solvable with the super physics of the 25th century, maybe not.

Of course, the cyborg descendents of the crypto quadrillionaires will be living in space by then. Well. that is if their launch pads haven't been scavenged for roofing material by mutated post-apocalyptic survivors.

[I'll add a little explainer. A coal power station releases heat. It powers your TV, fridge and toaster which also release heat.
So you go renewable. Friction in your wind turbine releases heat. Your turbine powers your electric car, which releases heat. And so on. All technology doing work releases heat, which floats off into the air.
Global energy use is rising exponentially.  https://ourworldindata.org/energy#global-energy-consumption-is-still-rising  Therefore heat is rising. At the moment it's kind of trivial, but it won't be forever.]



Mayyyybeeee you could look here for the awakening/crypto/world-saving nexus  -->
https://www.coindesk.com/vinay-guptas-big-idea-an-identity-layer-for-your-things
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 12:24 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 12:23 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Stickman3:

But the Earth gets warmer each time you cash your crypto out.


LOL just wait and see what happens when you try to cash your crypto out emoticon
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/23/21 6:05 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/23/21 6:05 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
agnostic:
Stickman3:

But the Earth gets warmer each time you cash your crypto out.


LOL just wait and see what happens when you try to cash your crypto out emoticon


You gonna start cravecoin - all your cravings on one distributed ledger ?
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/23/21 7:45 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/23/21 7:45 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Stickman3:

You gonna start cravecoin - all your cravings on one distributed ledger ?

Nice idea but too inflationary emoticon 
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 9:58 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/22/21 9:58 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
Ah, OK, the video caption says "Ten years from now, will we think of renewable energy as clean and green ?"
It's nearly ten years so we can have the answer.

Head to Carbon Brief - which seems like a level headed source using sound science.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-wind-nuclear-amazingly-low-carbon-footprints

“The study finds that electricity from fossil fuels, hydro and bioenergy has “significantly higher” embodied
energy, compared to nuclear, wind and solar power.

I continue to be amazed just how low the embodied energy use of solar, wind and nuclear power is, in
comparison with others,” study co-author Edgar Hertwich tells Carbon Brief."
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:33 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/21/21 12:33 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
I've ended the original "Uncharted Territory" topic and I'm starting a new one using the most recent 2021 posts. The old version is just to big to use efficiently now.

Thanks, ya'll, for playing along.

So... let's get back to it.
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:16 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 7:27 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
I read this morning that globally our ice is melting far faster than was predicted. Not a good thing at all:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/01/25/ice-melt-quickens-greenland-glaciers/
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:15 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:15 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
I'm interested in the relationship between global energy use, atmospheric heat dissipation, and greenhouse gas emissions. Who's with me?
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:37 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:24 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
 The first YT thing I posted above has this info, see the slide at 1:37:38 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GyOYNwk5AM

It says in the caption, in french, that the source for this info is data from the World Bank (for the GDP numbers) and BP stat (for the CO2 emission). You should be able to get the primary numbers and check if his curve is correct or not... But this guy is ligt, so I wouldn't bother, honestly...
 
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 3:00 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 2:56 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"I'm interested in the relationship between global energy use, atmospheric heat dissipation, and greenhouse gas emissions. Who's with me? "

Him over there!!
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/
https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 9:29 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 9:29 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
Chris Marti
I'm interested in the relationship between global energy use, atmospheric heat dissipation, and greenhouse gas emissions. Who's with me?

OK so I suppose first thing to know is how much heat the Earth is capable of dissipating - what is the safe ceiling for the work we can do globally without, as he says, boiling ourselves ?

There's a whole discussion around his article about heat dissipation tech - gigantic heat exchangers, energy beams etc ?
I don't know if anyone had anything that worked and debunked his claim, but a lot can happen in science in 400 years.

If you're still interested Mr Marti, there's more
https://joshuaspodek.com/150-tom-murphy-part-1-do-the-math-the-language-of-nature-transcript
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 9:25 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 9:25 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 7135 Join Date: 12/8/18 Recent Posts
Yeah, that's terrible news. emoticon

So are we saying that a low-technology small-scale way of life is the only sustainable option if we are honest and avoid the blind spots built into our systems? Or is that still under debate? I'm sorry to say that I haven't had the energy to keep track of the intense conversation. 

If it turns out that humanity really must transfer into a low-technology small-scale way of life, if that is even possible with such a huge population and limited resources*, I imagine that there would need to be lots of education and coordination on how to go about doing that. For one thing, not all low-technology small-scale methods are sustainable. Secondly, a lot of us westerners lack the survival skills that it would take. So how would that kind of transfer be organized? It seems like it would require the technology that it would set out to get us away from. Of course, there would still be lots of technology available that had already had the environmental production costs, so I suppose it would make sense to use that. But then? What kind of communication would be possible? How would knowledge be maintained and distributed? And what consequences would it have for the dharma? 

Appologies if I'm just repeating stuff that has already been said. Feel free to ignore me if I'm disrupting the flow of conversation with my ignorance. 

*) Of course the current throw-away mentality with regard to resources is not sustainable, that's for sure. 
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:36 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 10:27 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Well I wrote a huge message that got eaten. 

Basically it said : from my perspective, this is not a debate anymore. However, everyone who disagrees, will say that it is. So, you have to make an opinion, taking into account where people are coming from (ie, do they have conficts of interests, do they invest in green energies, do they work n IT companies, and such...)

The consensus I see within the community of people who approach this rationally and without conflicts-of-interest, is that what you're describing, which might actually more appropriately be called "returning to normal" - is gonna happen regardless of our attempts at controlling it. The degrees of chaos directly depend on our decisions now. However, decision making during the past 50 years, has reduced our margin for action to something extremely small and each year that passes ensures that we will experience higher and higer levels of disogranized breakdowns in the decades to come. But our decisions might still have an impact on whether it is milions or billions of people who will disappear during this "transition" back down to lower energy levels.

The good news is that people won't have to spend years on a cushion meditating to understand that they can't control life emoticon

The other good news is that we have evolved to exist like this, and we as europeans, linda, have abundant examples around us of what that might look like (think : historic city centers of all european towns).

Americans might have a tougher time with this because they are the historical epicenter of the consumerist mentality, the whole american dream thing is deeply ingrained in mentalities, and one does not have to wonder for long what what the fate of cities like LA will be.

The rest of the world is already in a "collapsed" state, or more accurately, still kind of live in a pre-industrial way, so this might be less of a problem for them to come to terms with, than for western baby boomers and their offsprings emoticon

Although they might actually be the most impacted - oops.

Cheers
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Brandon Dayton, modified 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 5:00 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 4:41 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 511 Join Date: 9/24/19 Recent Posts
The other good news is that we have evolved to exist like this, and we as europeans, linda, have abundant examples around us of what that might look like (think : historic city centers of all european towns).

Americans might have a tougher time with this because they are the historical epicenter of the consumerist mentality, the whole american dream thing is deeply ingrained in mentalities, and one does not have to wonder for long what what the fate of cities like LA will be.

This is one of my main obsessions outside of meditation. Sadly, the US did not look too different from traditional Europe before we decided to go all in on the automobile. I go to neighborhood meetings now where residents complain about 2 million dollars for bike lane construction but then don't bat an eyelid that the Utah DOT is spending half a billion a year on road widening. Have you read any Andres Duany, James Kustler, or Charles Marohn? Really good stuff when it comes to understanding how America has fucked up the building of cities. (If you just want a taste: https://vimeo.com/9874554)

I don't even think you really have to do a ton of research to know that something is not right (although it helps to put things in focus). People are disconnected from any real sense of purpose, power or community. All the protests and building anger is an expression of this. They are all really motivated by the same things. They put different faces on their causes, but its the same sense of alientation, instability, and humiliation that drives them to the street. No one feels like they have any real control or safety in their lives. 

I just had a chat with a friend who has moved to rural Utah and started growing his own food. I'm hard pressed to think of any other action that could meaningfully make me feel prepared in the face of what is coming. I thought this discussion was also good in that regard:

​​​​​​​https://erraticus.co/2021/01/20/subsistence-agriculture-united-states-collapse-industrial-capitalism-ashley-colby/
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:31 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:30 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Brandon Dayton
The other good news is that we have evolved to exist like this, and we as europeans, linda, have abundant examples around us of what that might look like (think : historic city centers of all european towns).

Americans might have a tougher time with this because they are the historical epicenter of the consumerist mentality, the whole american dream thing is deeply ingrained in mentalities, and one does not have to wonder for long what what the fate of cities like LA will be.

This is one of my main obsessions outside of meditation. Sadly, the US did not look too different from traditional Europe before we decided to go all in on the automobile. I go to neighborhood meetings now where residents complain about 2 million dollars for bike lane construction but then don't bat an eyelid that the Utah DOT is spending half a billion a year on road widening. Have you read any Andres Duany, James Kustler, or Charles Marohn? Really good stuff when it comes to understanding how America has fucked up the building of cities. (If you just want a taste: https://vimeo.com/9874554)

I don't even think you really have to do a ton of research to know that something is not right (although it helps to put things in focus). People are disconnected from any real sense of purpose, power or community. All the protests and building anger is an expression of this. They are all really motivated by the same things. They put different faces on their causes, but its the same sense of alientation, instability, and humiliation that drives them to the street. No one feels like they have any real control or safety in their lives. 

I just had a chat with a friend who has moved to rural Utah and started growing his own food. I'm hard pressed to think of any other action that could meaningfully make me feel prepared in the face of what is coming. I thought this discussion was also good in that regard:

​​​​​​​https://erraticus.co/2021/01/20/subsistence-agriculture-united-states-collapse-industrial-capitalism-ashley-colby/

Well that new response system makes this a bit complex lol, it took me a while to find where your new message was, lol !

Right, yes, of course america was also traditional before the industrial revolution, but let's say it just led the way throughout the 20 th century and kind of became a symbol. But we are in no way different and share the same situation.

I agree with you that the meaningful responses to all that are pretty simple and intuitive... 

I've recently been kind of lightly reproached the attitude I have of just sucking up a huge wad of facts and then just pouring out a whole bunch of info, and I can really understand that. It's my way of making sure that people (who don't already understand this) won't be able to "look the other way", kind of, but maybe it's unskilful. 

But, as you say, all people except the most privileged are or will be affected by this, and do express these feelings, although they sometimes distort the explanation and say "it's because of trump" or "it's because of the democrats" or something like that, and this is freaky because it can really turn into bloodshed.

This is where I do think there is value in having a clear picture of the situation in broad, "scientific" terms, like I've been presenting things : to help keep remembering what's going on, in the face of what's coming - for I reckon that, because of the phenomenon I just mentioned, people will be pushing forward all kinds of perspectives and explanations for the simple fact that the way they used to live no longer works, and that it will be a kind of really confusing "fake news chaos" climate (well, "will be" is perhaps a bit optimistic emoticon).  

​​​​​​​All the best
 
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 5:36 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 5:36 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 7135 Join Date: 12/8/18 Recent Posts
I don't think you are rambling at all. What you are proposing actually sounds doable, if only people would get on board collectively. Personally, I think the dharma would help me to go through with it, but yeah, I wouldn't be able to do it alone. Not all of it. The car thing is easy, though, because I don't have a driver's license. Once in a while (rarely) I do get someone to drive me some place, ironically mostly out in the nature. If nature would be more closeby, I wouldn't need that at all. I wish the infrastructure would be more allowing for environmental-friendly travelling, but I also think we humans are neurologically built for more local small-scale life. I can't afford travelling anyway, so right now it's a non-issue for me, and especially with the covid situation. I have loved ones far away, though. 

As for nuclear power, I'm gradually coming to accepting that I may very well have been wrong about it. My kid has given me long lectures about the assumed green alternatives, and some people in the poly community have expert knowledge on nuclear power, and compared to that, I can't deny that my opinions have been based more on fear than on actual knowledge. It still scares me, but that's just a feeling. 

Yeah, I know what you mean about wooden spoons. Ugh. Not to mention banning plastic bags. Or throwing out all plastic utensils - gah! People... 

I don't have much problem with being weird, lol. I sometimes describe myself as fabulously weird. Normality is overrated. I'm sick of the consumerism and how it's all based on throwing away and buying new versions of everything, especially technology. Devices get useless even if they haven't broken, despite being built to break, as new upgrades need more space because of built-in functions that are unnecessary anyway. Things can't be recycled effectively because different materials are all mixed. Things aren't compatible, can't be repaired, etc. It's madness! And the fashion industry with all short-term clothings and bling-bling is very unnecessary, I'd say, as is the constant development of new consumer products that promise to fill needs nobody had even imagined having to begin with, and with hundreds of different versions, all of the same poor quality. I don't think it makes anyone happy in the long run. I actually think that a lot in our society is against human nature. It just matches some triggers that evolution brought forth and that would actually be helpful if we would live the lives that favored them in our genes. 

I think I would be much happier in a society like the one you describe, and I think that would be the case for most of my neurodivergent friends, as society as it is tends to wear us out. I believe that happiness would increase in general, in the long run. The transition, however... Yeah, people will probably resist it all too long for it to happen smoothly, because of attachment and aversion and self-grasping, and people will probably fight for resources rather than trust each other to only take what is needed. That's sad. 
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:44 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:44 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö
I don't think you are rambling at all. What you are proposing actually sounds doable, if only people would get on board collectively. Personally, I think the dharma would help me to go through with it, but yeah, I wouldn't be able to do it alone. 

Doesn't it ! It is the way humans have always lived, so I agree with you that it's probably actually more in line with human nature...

I don't have much problem with being weird, lol. I sometimes describe myself as fabulously weird. Normality is overrated.

Right ! But I think for a lot of people, normality and conventionality is pretty important, and that that's a strong factor.

...I actually think that a lot in our society is against human nature. It just matches some triggers that evolution brought forth and that would actually be helpful if we would live the lives that favored them in our genes. 

Yes madam.

I think I would be much happier in a society like the one you describe, and I think that would be the case for most of my neurodivergent friends, as society as it is tends to wear us out. ​​​​​​​I believe that happiness would increase in general, in the long run.

Me too emoticon

The transition, however... Yeah, people will probably resist it all too long for it to happen smoothly, because of attachment and aversion and self-grasping, and people will probably fight for resources rather than trust each other to only take what is needed. That's sad. 
Yes, that is the tragedy of it... Very very sad. The terrible thing is that some people will make things worse by clinging to illusions of control rather than surrender. 

I'm really starting to think that people who agree with what we've been saying, should get together, and just build something parallel that will easily detach from the current fossil fuel consumerism based social function when the times comes... Propose and embody an alternative which will be viable when the SHTF. I like the image of the new branch coming out of the dying tree, which actually starts taking over and becomes its own tree. https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fc8.alamy.com%2Fcomp%2FB8JXTC%2Fnew-branches-coming-out-of-a-dead-tree-B8JXTC.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

But yeah, we shouldn't kid ourselves, it's not gonna be all fairies and rainbows... emoticon
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 8:35 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/26/21 3:43 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
It’s interesting that developing countries are most impacted by climate change but developed countries are most concerned about it. My crude guess is that most poor people want a better material standard of living whereas many rich people know that more money doesn’t bring more happiness once you have the essentials covered (food, shelter, medicine). By “rich people” I mean anyone who has those essentials, which would include people without much money living in developed countries which have strong social welfare programs. 

It’s natural and right that rich people worry about climate change, but what the poor hear is ‘don’t bother, it’s not that great up here’, which sounds disingenuous. If the rich countries are willing to give up some of their material standard of living to reduce emissions, the poor countries will be very happy to narrow the gap I suspect. I know the economy is not a zero-sum game, but getting closer to the top does confer disproportionate advantages (e.g. America’s “exorbitant privilege” of controlling the world’s reserve currency, which it gained after emerging as the main victor of WWII).

My sense is that China still harbors a lot of grievance due to western imperialism and is very focused on getting (back) to the top. Sure they make some of the right noises on climate change, but I imagine that they are laughing at the developed world’s growing willingness to concede its material advantage. Personally I don’t have a position either way, just presenting a different perspective. Although if the tables are turned though over the next 100 years, I can’t help wondering whether newly poor greens in developed countries will still feel the same way about things. Declining standards of living are generally harbingers of social unrest and the collapse of large power blocs …

EDIT: re-reading what I wrote, it does sound pretty cynical. Also I realized that I do have a personal position - I don't mind paying for reduced emissions and I think it's the right thing to do. I vote that way, even if I'm not an activist. I still think it's worth considering history, realpolitik and unintended consequences though. Here's a joke I just thought of:

young person: bitcoin is the future
older person: don't tell me about the future
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J W, modified 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 2:32 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 2:32 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 739 Join Date: 2/11/20 Recent Posts
Sorry to introduce another hot/controversial topic but have we talked about memestonks yet?

Hot take:
"GameStop is doing a better job at distributing wealth to americans during a pandemic than the US government." - Rod Breslau

Perhaps this is not the place for such frivolous topics. If so, please ignore. Personally, I find it fascinating.
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 5:20 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/27/21 5:20 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Typical late bull froth
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 10:27 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 10:20 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"young person: bitcoin is the future
older person: don't tell me about the future "
Maybe. Maybe Yuan. Impermanent. At 7 transactions per second BTC won't be the world reserve.
Maybe the below chart shows an ongoing trend that started in Sumer (an economist would be handy here), but maybe there's a chance that a chart like this only holds true for holocene civilizations that rely on things like ice caps, predictable ocean currents, rain that falls on your crops and not your rival's etc etc. ie a big reshuffle is on the way.



What do you think of this ?
https://jembendell.com/2019/11/01/the-spiritual-invitation-of-climate-chaos
I think his interpretation of the evidence is likely skewed unhelpfully towards doom, but the upper-ups of the climate movement seem to be getting into spirituality, for better or worse.

And, also, ecophilosophy question - do experiences that people intepret as being connected to Gaia really signify A&P type events ?
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 12:45 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 12:40 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
Yeah agreed bitcoin has a long way to go. A successful currency needs to have some inflationary credit creation mechanism built in otherwise it doesn’t get used enough (Gresham’s Law). The dollar is slowly losing world reserve status and then the world will probably run on a multi-currency reserve system for a while. The interesting thing about your chart is the 80-100 year cycles. I like the theory of Strauss and Howe which says that historical patterns repeat in ~80 year cycles because that’s the maximum the length of a generation. After 80 years everyone who experienced the last war or crisis is dead, hence humanity is free to repeat the mistakes of the past! I really recommend their book the Fourth Turning because it also gives a convincing account of how psychological patterns cycle as each generation tries to compensate for the excess or paucity of nurturing prevalent in their parents’ generation.

I just skimmed Bendell’s article. I don’t doubt that climate change is a major threat and in some ways it’s more structural and permanent-seeming than previous threats facing humanity. However it’s worth bearing in mind that a certain kind of apocalyptic viewpoint has always sold well throughout history. How must the world have looked like at the low point of the black depth when the population of Europe was reduced by half? How many people alive today remember the apocalyptic climate of fear surrounding nuclear proliferation in the 1950s? (still unresolved!) It seems that every generation has its major apocalyptic fears and time has a funny habit of moving the goalposts.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:57 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:57 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"How many people alive today remember the apocalyptic climate of fear surrounding nuclear proliferation in the 1950s?"

Somewhere in Siberia there's a warhead with my coordinates dialled in. The world can't allow Russia to collapse they have 7000 nukes.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:21 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:04 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"The interesting thing about your chart is the 80-100 year cycles. Fourth turning etc..."
Interesting point. Someone once pointed out that the world financial centre keeps moving West - starting in Iraq.... Paris, London, New York. Next stop LA or Beijing ? I suppose now it's detirmined by things like length of fibre optic cables for high frequency trading.

"I just skimmed Bendell’s article."
Aw, I thought people would be interested in the buddhistyness of it.

And, ah, what about the A&P bit ? I see loads of this. People find ecstasy - through whatever means - and boom they're warriors of Gaia. There's a whole religion beng synthesised at the moment that's supposed to replace the Judeo-Christian tradition with something more tree friendly.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 2/5/21 2:23 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/5/21 2:22 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
"....it’s worth bearing in mind that a certain kind of apocalyptic viewpoint has always sold well throughout history. How must the world have looked like at the low point of the black depth when the population of Europe was reduced by half? How many people alive today remember the apocalyptic climate of fear surrounding nuclear proliferation in the 1950s?"

...but the black death really happened, and it really was the end of a way of life.

...debates continue as to whether plagues have brought down civilizations. Either way, civilizations tend to come and go.

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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:26 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:26 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
We're living through a global pandemic right now. I think it's horrifying, but even SARS COV-2 pales in comparison to the ultimate effects of climate change.

I'm convinced that the global climate, without some kind of miracle happening, will continue to get worse, people will be forced to migrate, other people will perish, and earth's climate will change. You can talk about doomsayers not getting it right all day long, but this one is baked in. Most of the damage is already done. So the idea that doomsayers missed on this or that catastrophe is missing the bigger, and scientifically dire, picture.

So is there a miracle that can change the trajectory of climate change? I have no idea what that could possibly be.
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:38 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:36 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I would advise people to form their own opinions on this, to read some of the numerous, quality sources of reference provided throughout this thread and the first part from which it sprung - in depth, don't just skim through them. 20 h is probably a minimum of focused study to form a half-informed opinion on the matter. Don't let your opinion be swayed by accusations of historical ignorance and half-baked arguments based on limited knowledge. Realize that what I said about people having conflicts of interest, is true of this thread, too - can you guess who works/used to work in the world of finance here ? emoticon Keep the big picture in mind. Don't settle for status quo and be bold ! Status quo is the worst possible course for our future. Question your judgment when appropriate, but when the evidence is sufficient, settle the question decisively. In these matters as with many, doubt and uncertainty can be surprisingly devilish. This is of life and death importance for many, many, many people...
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:58 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 1:58 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Realize that what I said about people having conflicts of interest, is true of this thread, too - can you guess who works/used to work in the world of finance here ?

​​​​​​​Hey, are you talking to me?
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:16 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:14 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Nope emoticon. Also, your comment was posted while i was typing mine in ! And it basically seems to express the same sentiment as what I was writing...
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:33 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:31 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Just checking - I used to be a commercial banker. Many years ago, but you were getting close to the bone.  emoticon
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:49 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:48 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 996 Join Date: 4/27/19 Recent Posts
How could I have known that ? emoticon Sorry for being divisively suggestive here, but it was my best attempt at not being straightforwardly insulting - i'm feeling pretty roguish today... 

Pretty funny though ! 
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:56 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 2:56 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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How could I have known that ?

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​LinkedIn - the internet user's best friend!
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 3:17 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 3:16 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Oh yeah, i did see your profile on there one time, but did not pick up on that. anyways...
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 6:33 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/28/21 6:32 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 2722 Join Date: 2/26/19 Recent Posts
I used to work in the "world of finance" ... what's the conflict of interest?
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 1/31/21 11:57 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/31/21 11:57 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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A new study I found poking around this morning is interesting:

Orignal study link:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020AV000284

From an article summary on Ars Technica:

One of the things the research has made clear is that efficiency will be absolutely necessary for reaching emissions targets. By 2050, rising population and GDP should boost energy demand in the absence of efficiency. But, to get to carbon neutrality, we'll have to keep energy use roughly equal to our present levels. Some efficiency will occur simply because electrical vehicles and heating systems are inherently more efficient. But it's clear that we'll need quite a bit beyond that, since the research team estimates that per-capita energy use has to decline by about 40 percent in the next 30 years to reach carbon neutrality.

...

To an extent, the researchers themselves seem somewhat surprised by how much has changed in the last few years. "The net cost of deep decarbonization, even to meet a 1°C/350 ppm trajectory," they write, "is substantially lower than estimates for less ambitious 80 percent by 2050 scenarios a few years ago." It also provides clarity to what has been an uncertain future. "Until recently, it was unclear whether variable renewable energy, nuclear, or fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage would become the main form of generation in a decarbonized electricity system," they note. "The cost decline of variable renewable energy over the last few years, however, has definitively changed the situation."


​​​​​​​
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 2:28 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 2:26 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
hmmm..
Hector L, modified 3 Years ago at 1/31/21 1:22 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/31/21 1:22 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Megawattdollar FTW
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 1/31/21 6:29 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 1/31/21 6:28 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Tt9hRY7Uk8
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 2:53 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 2:49 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 7135 Join Date: 12/8/18 Recent Posts
I want to thank you, Olivier, for your reply earlier. I fear that you may be right.

​​​​​​​
Olivier:

The consensus I see within the community of people who approach this rationally and without conflicts-of-interest, is that what you're describing, which might actually more appropriately be called "returning to normal" - is gonna happen regardless of our attempts at controlling it. The degrees of chaos directly depend on our decisions now. However, decision making during the past 50 years, has reduced our margin for action to something extremely small and each year that passes ensures that we will experience higher and higer levels of disogranized breakdowns in the decades to come. But our decisions might still have an impact on whether it is milions or billions of people who will disappear during this "transition" back down to lower energy levels.


What kinds of decisions do you think, based on your knowledge about this, would help reducing the chaos? Especially for groups (not limited to humans) that are already suffering from the harm that has been done?
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 4:01 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/3/21 3:59 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Well the main thing seems to be carbon emission - for instance, with what's been put in the air so far, it's basically guaranteed, apparently, that we're gonna get to 1.5C-2C minimum by 2100, even if no more Co2 at all was put into the air starting right... now ! And this will remain in the atmosphere for centuries to millenia (i think it's more like several millenia, ie 10 000 years, and the more is put up there, the longer it takes to be absorbed, etc. emoticon), so once it's all emitted, it basically brings a new situation, a conundrum, not a crisis, not something you can do much about. So what we want to avoid is temperature going up 3, 4, 5, 6 degrees... The last time the earth had a +6 C quick temperature up, 95% of species, which didn't have time to adapt, went extinct. So that's what we're trying to avoid.

That's the general idea, from there, countless courses of action can be imagined ! emoticon There's a lot of possibilities and much more qualified people than me giving suggestions... But i think it's actually pretty intuitive what we need to do, for the most part ! 

(1) There's individual things and then (2) political level things ; I think the individual level is about half of the energy consumption, so, reducing yur emissions by five (for the average european) would be a good thing, but the problem is, that requires lifestyle changes and possibly social circle shifts which most people aren't able/willing to take of their own accord, unless the culture really shifts, which is possible, I'm one of these guys who's pretty convinced, although I don't go protest in the streets and all that, but if the momentum gets strong enough...

Planes should become an extremely rare luxury, cars should really be abandoned as much as possible, etc. Which is why there should probably be strong policies that actually GET INFORCED. But it's definitely possible. One thing that would be nice would be if europe stopped fooling around and actually went ahead with their engagements of at least REDUCING emissions a bit, not INCREASING them ever year that passes.

I heard some good news today though : the french state has been sued for climate inaction and has LOST !

It's a matter of appropriating the thing and getting your imagination working. What does reducing your impact mean for you personally ? Hint : we're not talking using wooden coffee spoons instead of plastic ones, if you know what I mean... lol

For most people, it would actually involve changing jobs, cutting the car use by... a LOT, getting a house with a garden to grow part of your own food, and the likes... emoticon Creating a different lifestyle.

85% of people used to be farmers, back before the 1800's ! I'm not saying everyone has to become a peasant, but ... having only 1% of people having to work to feed all the rest, can't be a very long-term thing, right ?

A lot of it has to do with changing our beliefs, and having the strength to really resists all the incentives to consume and such that the society is enforcing upon us. Keep in mind the middle ages peasant worked half as much as we do now, and the days where he didn't work were usually for religious ceremonies, rituals, and feasts, which is actually pretty cool ... emoticon 

Also keep in mind, that we only think we need a lot of things, because some people have shaped us that way in a very conscious manner throughout the 20th century (see the century of the self documentary upthread, which was actually a dan ingram recommendation) : advertisement, heavy industry from world war II, freudian psychology, lol, etc., all changed the attitude of people from not needing much and only buying things which are necesary, to an attitude of endless desires and consumption. 

This really goes deep once you start diving, a bit like meditation, you start questioning everything about the way you've been raised. For instance : birthday celebrations ? Lots of presents at Xmas ? Why ? etc.

Maybe changing the way we think life should be lived implies becoming ok with the idea, and then doing it, of rarely buying new clothes, living in a house without electricity but using candles and living with the natural rythms, having only one internet hotspot and a few computers per village. I've tried it in Mount Athos, and it's completey nice and healthy and viable. 

The problem is that we're just... not good at going against the grain ! It's really hard ! We don't want to seem like weirdos/losers. That is why, in my opinion, most people aren't doing anything even though they know very well they should... I think, for better or worse, that that's actually the main driver behind all this... 

What you don't have a smartphone, you don't use fb/amazon/gmail/etc., don't have a car, live with a few hundred euros a month, grow your own vegetables ? You weirdo/loser emoticon lol 

Imagine : "you don't have electricity ? ... Do you not like having friends ?"

Yes, I think we have to make this look cool actually. The coolness cred should shift sides. It should be the lamest thing to have a big car for no reason, really lame to get the new apple watch. The weirdos should be the one who go to get starbucks, etc. Now THAT would be powerful...

Also, perhaps I should've opened with that, but the number one thing that the pros of this usually advize, is : don't be alone, don't change your lifestyle alone, don't transform your way of thinking/acting alone, and then don't go through the next decades alone, especially, lol. That in itself is already very solid advice and a time-consuming as well as long term endeavour, I believe. Not the easiest in fact ! emoticon

Another thing is just the structural/collective emissions, ie, public transports, heating of public spaces, schools, etc.

My opinion is that nuclear is actually a pretty good thing, and that we should stop investing in energies such as solar, wind, and hydrogen.

Well, I'm kind of rambling here, so hopefully there something of interest in there emoticon

Cheers
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 6:56 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 6:54 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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We need to build a Dyson Sphere around the sun. We obviously can't do that now, but if we can hang on for a few thousand years until we are able to do that, then we're set. I would say we need to spend more on, and get to the point where fusion energy is viable. Also, we need to figure out carbon sequestration. And yes, we need to scale our consumption back pretty drastically, and end our current industrial farming practices, which means investing in how to grow meat without growing cattle, and hogs, and chickens at such a huge scale. My guess is there is more potency in the future of biology than in traditional industry when it comes to our energy future.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:40 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:40 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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"We need to build a Dyson Sphere around the sun...end our current industrial farming practices"
No cattle ranches in the asteroid belt, the food of the space colonists will be vegan by default. Except maybe for farmed insects.
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:47 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:34 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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... I respectfully disagree. 

A few thousand years ? ... 

What the ... ? ...
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:50 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 7:50 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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So you don't like long-term thinking?  emoticon
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 8:20 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 8:19 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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If we maintain the infrastructure, complex industrial chains and globalized physical and information fluxes which allow for research such as fusion to even be possible, we will probably disappear within a century - is what I mean emoticon
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 8:36 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 8:35 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I'm not ready to give up on the future in regard to what is and is not possible. I'd be happy to sacrifice most of my consumption to offset research into fusion and other promising advancements. I don't believe we are in a binary, either/or situation. There are indeed trade-offs. Call me a cockeyed optimist. Call me unrealistic, Call me whatever you wish. I can take it emoticon
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 9:11 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 9:06 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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 I have a physicist friend who's done a PhD on Iter and apparently it's not very promising emoticon

Well, I can't predict the future either. I'm just worried that people who grew up throughout the post-WWII miracle years in advanced western countries are blindsided by the abundance that they've experience throughout their lives, which perhaps biases views and decisions, in favor for tech, which after all worked miracles for them, thus constructing a trust on technological solutions which was built over decades and is therefor hard to shake. This kind of tech hubris is not shared by, say, my generation, nor by the traditional people of the world.

It reminds me of a Davos conference talk I watched, the panel had a spokesman of the chinese government, a guy representing The Rockefeller foundation, and a woman representing a traditional people from some african country, in her traditional costume. The conversation is ridiculous. The smart business guys talk about how they're gonna bring high-tech low-cost devices and solar-panel systems to the african countries which dont have electricity, so that they can both have electricity and use high tech systems for agriculture. The woman says "we don't give a shit about that, we just want you to leave us alone and let us plant trees and grow food the way our grandparents still know how to do it - we don't want your technology : we don't even have food."

Here is the discussion - it actually starts with a greta thunberg discourse - listen to the chadian woman talking at 31:00 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51u4JECraLQ

"My grandmother is the best technology ever..."

These guys, man..... Utterly disconnected..................................... To think that these traditional people supposedly have a lesser "human development index"....... 

These people just exist in different worlds. The problem is, one these groups wants to impose their vision because they think it's for the greater good...  So fucking disrespectful.
 
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 9:38 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 9:37 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Olivier, I certainly don't intend to disrespect anyone. I hope you know that. I'm as concerned about the future of humanity as just about anyone. I am also a product of my life's timeline. I try to incorporate new perspectives on things into how I think about these existential issues. I've seen dramatic advances in technology that on the one hand make my life almost unrecognizable now compared to when I was, oh, a teenager. Those same technologies have come at a price - environmental, social, economic, ethical, and others. I'm sure there are physicists like your friend who say we're doomed unless we revert. Know this: my optimism about what might be possible in the future is balanced by pessimism and concern. I think that's actually okay - so I continue to be cautiously optimistic and pessimistically skeptical.
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 10:03 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 10:03 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Oops, I see that my reply got in the wrong place. After I was logged out, I forgot to click on "more posts" and instead hit reply to an older post than the one I was actually replying too. I'm glad you saw it anyway, Olivier. Yeah, I think you are right. We should start building alternatives. 
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Linda ”Polly Ester” Ö, modified 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 10:08 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/4/21 10:08 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I don't know what might be possible in the future either. Regardless, I think there are lots of aspects of our current society that should be ditched because they actually suck in most ways. If miracles do happen, I still wouldn't miss them. They are just really bad habits. 
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 7:35 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 6:53 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Book review by David Holgrem, the guy who invented permaculture, of the Servigne book I mentioned upthread (In the original uncharted territory thread), which seems to have finally been translated to english, then https://holmgren.com.au/book-review-how-everything-can-collapse-a-manual-for-our-times/?fbclid=IwAR3otc6buEULEEaDWRZN_Nz3Wzi73aIa5XkGeQLSv-yPEAY2RlOwTGIn-gw
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 6:57 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 6:57 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Thanks, Olivier.
Olivier S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 7:37 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 7:36 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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welcome emoticon
George S, modified 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 8:13 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 8:11 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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A lot of the discussion on climate change focuses on consumption, but the elephant in the room is reproduction:

Global Warming ~ (Global Population) x (Av Consumption Per Person)

According to this article:

A 2009 study of the relationship between population growth and global warming determined that the “carbon legacy” of just one child can produce 20 times more greenhouse gas than a person will save by driving a high-mileage car, recycling, using energy-efficient appliances and light bulbs, etc. Each child born in the United States will add about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the carbon legacy of an average parent. The study concludes, “Clearly, the potential savings from reduced reproduction are huge compared to the savings that can be achieved by changes in lifestyle.”

​​​​​​​The “good news” is that the global fertility rate has fallen from 4.5 in 1960 to 2.5 today and is projected to fall to 1.5 by 2100. As a consequence, population growth peaked at 2% in 1968, falling to 1% today and projected to be 0% by 2100. That would still leave the global population increasing from 8 billion today to 11 billion in 2100, so consumption would have to fall by 38% in 80 years just to keep emissions constant, which would still probably leave temperatures significantly higher and all sorts of climate related problems.

Another problem is the fact that there is a strong negative correlation between fertility and wealth, e.g. countries with a GDP per capita >$10k tend to have a fertility rate of 1-2 vs 4-6 for those with < $1k. It seems that in general people will only have less children if their wealth (and hence consumption) increases, which cancels out some of the climate benefit. But maybe people could accept a lower wealth level which still offered enough material security to obviate the need for more than 2 children. I agree that changing attitudes is key, and to a certain extent one sees this happening.
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J W, modified 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 10:21 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 2/11/21 9:47 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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I do like the cautiously optimistic and pessimistically skeptical approach, I mean if there is truly no hope it can just kind of overwhelming and then no progress is made.  But humans have a knack for solving problems when it directly threatens their self-interest.  In this case, we are talking about something that threatens our survival as a species, I would think it's more likely than not that a serious global response occurs.

Most people have not 'experienced' global warming yet.  Even us here who are fully aware of the issues are still mostly operating at an intellectual level (speaking for myself, at least).  Like awakening, it's the repeated experience that leads to the societal realizations that are necessary here. In this case the experience will come in the form of external trauma (or - perhaps - through education?), because we're that behind and we're that blind, unfortunately, but I think enough people will have that 'experience' at some point for critical mass to be achieved.  (when, and whether it will be too late, I don't know)

The saddest part of all this is the so-called "undeveloped" countries, which contribute the least per capita to the problem, will almost definitely suffer the most.
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 3/28/21 9:31 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 3/28/21 9:31 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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Bringing this topic back up to introduce a recent SciAm article by sustainability scientist Kimberly Nicholas.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/taking-action-can-cure-your-climate-grief/
​​​​​​​
Tipping points are a theme of the book. They include big climate domino effects, such as the collapse of the Amazon rain forest or the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. They also include social milestones—such as when Swedish teenagers started calling out celebrities for taking unnecessary flights after opera singer Malena Ernman, also known as climate activist Greta Thunberg’s mother, resolved to stop flying completely. Nicholas examines her own uncomfortable feelings and how she has used them to fuel her science, activism and personal carbon emissions goals. She has honed her philosophies through many conversations with friends who are dealing with their own moral dilemmas, such as whether to have a child (a carbon-intense prospect). She also lays out the five stages of radical climate acceptance—ignorance, avoidance, doom, all the feels and purpose—and gives advice about how readers can navigate each.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 4/10/21 6:15 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/10/21 6:14 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

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So here's the doom bit
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2021/04/climate-change-has-cost-7-years-ag-productivity-growth

"Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26–34%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change."
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 4/3/21 3:00 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/3/21 2:55 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
About 150,000 people die each day and nobody's breaking down in grief about that, seems a bit inconsistent that we are suddenly expected to be overcome by climate grief.

Get your daily death toll here, notice the complete lack of grief about it.
https://www.worldometers.info/
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 4/4/21 9:05 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/4/21 9:01 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
May you recover from whatever it is that's causing you to post that kind of stuff, Stickman3.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 4/5/21 6:56 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/4/21 4:56 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
Did you grieve yet ? Are you going to grieve over some deaths but not others ? Of course you're not. 150,000 a day - if you were to impartially grieve them all you wouldn't make it into the shower in the morning without breaking down in tears.
What the environmental movement is trying to do is partition off some people who are worth grieving, and some who are not - it's highly manipulative, quite disgusting, it won't get any more solar panels built and it won't help anyone.

Plus, grieving about environmental deaths to come, which is the game, is living in fantasy - because nobody knows who or how many it will be. Why not wait until it happens, and then do the grieving because grief is, after all, supposed to happen post-mortem.

OK I'll give you some good news - some of the stuff the lady in the article is quoting is sci-fi, not reality. Don't worry about fiction. Next, the terrible Greenland tipping point - it takes about a thousand years for Greenland to melt. A thousand years isn't an emergency, cross that off the grieving list it won't be a cause for any grief.

Next, the biggest cause of death globally isn't drought, or flood, or resource wars - it's heart disease. I don't see any mass grieving over that. UN says maybe 150,000 die per year from climate change. 1/365 of the total.

Grant a higher death toll in the future - and try and find a solid figure for how many we are supposed to be grieving over. Can't be found except in a handful of papers. It's all extremely vague. I mean, really, try and find a solid figure on the future death toll and see how hard it is.

May you limit your CO2 emissions to 2 tonnes per year.
Round trip flight from New York to Thailand for a retreat ? 6 tonnes - that's the kind of change being asked for. Big change.

Lots of guilt to be handed round for Western lifestyles, people grieving over things that haven't happened - big mess !

Maybe I should say that I've been around enough hardcore eco-warriors to have had all this stuff in one ear and out the other.

But they're right in that there are two important numbers in all this - the CO2 reading at the Mauna Loa observatory, and the personal fraction belonging to each person globally that makes it up.

The personal fraction is where the horse trading comes in, because so many people want theirs to be bigger than someone else's - for any number of reasons, maybe many of them justified, maybe many of them bogus.

Is that high emissions plane flight to Thailand for the good of humanity - because enlightened buddhists emit less CO2 and so the more enlightened buddhists there are the better - because that'll save the world ?

Any evidence for that ?

Or is it for the good of humanity because the world is an unsavable (saving it is just christian and communist stuff) and people need to overcome suffering, and buddhism is the best way for that - so you might as well burn as much carbon as you need to achieve that goal ?

Of course, people who insist that everyone should have the same emissions quota aren't going to like a special class of nomenklatura buddhists granting themselves spiritual permission for using a bit extra - but people who are really into equality don't like anyone who has a bit more.

Or does it all kind of work out in a mysterious way beyond human ken ?
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 4/5/21 6:35 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/5/21 6:35 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Do you know what the term "false choice" means?
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 4/5/21 4:25 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/5/21 4:24 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
Whose false choice ?

The environmental movement won't be getting the public on board by telling them there is a two-tier grief system with victims of climate change being on top.

People have their own special interest groups that they feel closer to and grieve above all others - that's pretty normal. It's totally normal to watch the news of thousands dying in a hurricane somewhere you never heard of and think nothing of it.

Having said that, if people are focussed on the climate then they might be grieving climate victims, and they're free to do so, really it's their own  business who they're attached to. But if they want to succeed politically, and globally, I don't think partisan grief is a helpful message.
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Chris M, modified 3 Years ago at 4/6/21 6:35 AM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/6/21 6:34 AM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 5485 Join Date: 1/26/13 Recent Posts
Sigh.
Stickman3, modified 3 Years ago at 4/6/21 3:00 PM
Created 3 Years ago at 4/6/21 2:59 PM

RE: Uncharted Territory - Part 2

Posts: 174 Join Date: 1/15/21 Recent Posts
Shrug.

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